Regional Security

Hassan was quoted in an El País article on January 2 entitled, "El desenlace por escribir de la Primavera Árabe."

Hassan’s paraphrased remarks (translated from Spanish to English), appear below: 

In historic terms, ten years is not a sufficient time frame to judge the impacts of transformative processes like the "Dignity Revolutions," wrongly referred to as the "Arab Spring." Seasonal analogies, including "Arab Spring" and "Arab Winter or Autumn," are attractive and "sexy" from a marketing point of view but terribly miss the mark and hence, are misleading. That is why I prefer to call these uprisings "Dignity Revolutions"—millions of people from various backgrounds took to the streets demanding social justice and dignified citizenship. Though most of these protest movements have been brutally suppressed, they will likely return, perhaps bringing even more violence, since the root causes that produced them have worsened over the course of the past ten years. What is abundantly clear is that there will be no going back to a pre-2011 political order.   

It is unclear where the region is heading in the next ten years. The existing political order has proved to be resilient. The deeply corrupt and authoritarian leaders are ready to implement the strategy of scorched-earth and therefore, fight to the death to stay in power. Societies, too, have shown signs of resilience. Ten years on, the protesters are caught between authoritarian states, kleptocratic ruling elites and apocalyptic, authoritarian non-state actors, such as ISIS. Yet, the fear factor has fallen and as a result, no regime in the region—no matter how brutal—can take the status quo for granted. Unexpected, recent mass demonstrations in Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon and Sudan show that these societies are ready to protest and confront resilient authoritarianism.

Click here to read the full article on El País (in Spanish).

On December 16, the EastWest Institute (EWI), together with its partners at the German Chambers of Commerce in Algiers and Casablanca (AHKs), held a webinar entitled “The Renewable Energy Sector: Challenges and Opportunities for Cooperation”—the concluding event in a series of virtual meetings that have formed the backbone of EWI’s Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue. The webinar brought together five business leaders, three Algerian and two Moroccan, to take part in a cross-border business dialogue aiming to promote greater economic connectivity between the two countries in the renewable energy sector.

The Renewable Energy Sector 

The energy sector is one of the few industries where Algeria and Morocco enjoy some degree of economic cooperation. According to the latest figures of the Observatory of Economic Complexity (2018), almost 90 percent (approximately 622 million USD) of Algeria’s total exports to Morocco came in the form of petroleum gas and refined petroleum. Despite these numbers being a vast improvement in comparison with trade in other sectors between the two countries, these figures remain dwarfed by the sums both Algeria and Morocco trade with third parties in Europe and beyond. 

The renewable energy sector, however, represents a more sustainable and environmentally friendly means for both countries to pursue new avenues of economic cooperation, both with one another and in their respective trade relations beyond the Maghreb, particularly towards Europe. Unlike other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, Morocco is a net importer of energy, relying on imports for almost 90 percent of its energy needs. Algeria, on the other hand, desperately needs to identify more sustainable means to wean itself off oil and gas exports and diversify its economy. 

Governments in Algiers and Rabat have proposed ambitious plans to harness green energy, which they share across several sources: wind, solar, hydro and geothermal. Yet, there remain significant divergences in their respective accomplishments in this regard with Algeria failing to meet its self-imposed targets to harness wind energy and Morocco beginning to gain international recognition for its commitment to source 52 percent of its electricity needs from renewable energies.

Local Experience

Webinar participants provided astute insights as to the situation on the ground in Algeria and Morocco in terms of successes and failures when it came to their own and government initiatives in renewable energies and energy consumption. A common problem shared by entrepreneurs in the sector on either side of the border is the inability to connect their products to the national electricity grid. 

According to participants, some solar energy in the region is connected to the national grids, however, there remains a lot of room for improvement given the potential in the market and the necessity to become less reliant on non-renewables sources of energy. Currently, participant initiatives include the installation of solar pumping systems for farmers who often experience issues with power shortages, while others provide electricity to individuals in isolated areas. However, the inability to connect to the national grids means entrepreneurs are unable to transfer surplus energy reserves. 

Nevertheless, despite these challenges, participants pointed out the complementarity between Algeria and Morocco in terms of knowledge and expertise and proceeded to highlight several means by which they could exchange competencies. Algeria could learn from Morocco’s proficiency in financial access and institutionalization given the lack of cooperation amongst several ministries in Algiers. At the same time, Algeria is more adept at injections of renewable energy and more advanced in terms of marketing and distribution of renewable energy than its neighbor. Furthermore, both countries could also learn from their regional neighbor Tunisia in terms of developing appropriate regulations for market development. With these ideas and insights in mind, EWI, the AHKs in Algiers and Casablanca, and the participants developed the following policy recommendations. 

Recommendations 

Utilize hybrid energy systems to combine current energy infrastructure with the renewable energy sector. Algeria already has some experience with hybrid energy systems, which are fully convergent, making them useful for cross-border cooperation. Both countries need to develop reliable electricity supplies, which could be achieved via hybridization by combining biogas and solar power. 

Revitalize the DESERTEC project by developing new models to address drawbacks that jeopardized initial enthusiasm for the initiative. Originally envisioned to harness the Sahara’s vast solar energy to produce electricity to meet local and European needs, the project still offers a viable avenue for Algeria and Morocco to develop a large, multinational project, which cannot only meet their own energy needs, but diversify sources of income.  

Offer tax or customs exemptions to locally made goods originating from the region. This could address two of the main issues that have resurfaced throughout the project. It would enable Algerian or Moroccan goods to enter each other’s market, while enabling their local consumers to gain an understanding of the products available across the border. In turn, this would address the purveying lack of trust in Arab or Maghreb-made products in both countries’ respective markets. 

Unify market operators in the renewable energy sector so that they cooperate and act in unison in their efforts to influence and lobby local governments. Again, this policy requires a two-pronged strategy targeting local decision-making and cross-border cooperation, which can then be used in negotiations with third-party stakeholders, particularly Europe. 

Pool resources to target the European market. The EU’s objective to drastically reduce carbon emissions in the bloc, coupled with the reality that the continent needs to seek alternative energy sources, presents North Africa with an immense opportunity to combine its collective bargaining power in future energy negotiations with the EU. 

About the Algeria Morocco Business Dialogue

Despite its vast potential, the Maghreb region is often cited as being one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. The Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue project has sought to bring together Algerian and Moroccan business leaders from multiple economic sectors with the aim of overcoming obstacles to bilateral trade between the two neighbors.

The dialogues have focused on several industries and topics vital to successful entrepreneurship in Algeria and Morocco such as food security, agriculture, healthcare, the impact of digitalization and new technologies and energy—with a particular focus on how to attract quality investment, ensure environmental protection and empower businesswomen.

COVID-19 unfortunately had a detrimental effect on the overall operation and schedule of the project. Each meeting was originally envisioned as an in-person conference such as the first event on the agricultural industry, which took place as a two-day delegation to Berlin to attend the city’s Green Week—one of the world’s largest international agriculture trade affairs. Travel restrictions and the ongoing pandemic inevitably forced the institute to adapt and change the format of the project from face-to-face meetings to several webinars. Although this meant the discussions between participants were less interactive than originally planned, they proved no less intensive nor productive as the following policy recommendations from our last and previous webinars attest. 

Click here to read a French translation of this event report.

Click here to read an Arabic translation of this event report.

Links to Reports of Previous Briefings:

The Startup Industry

The Healthcare Industry

Cooperation in the Automobile Industry

Women’s Empowerment and Entrepreneurship: Challenges and Opportunities

The Agricultural and Food Manufacturing Sector

Hassan was quoted in Cyprus Mail's December 19 article, "'The ‘Arab Spring’: unfinished business, ten years on."

As quoted in this article: “The toll has been terrible in terms of the destruction of social, economic and basic infrastructure,” Kawa Hassan, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Programme at the East West Institute, told the Sunday Mail. “You can’t even recognise countries like Syria and Yemen anymore.”

“The history of these protests has not been written yet,” says Hassan.

In Syria, “The inaction of the West exacerbated a disaster,” says Hassan, “giving room for regional states to intervene.”

Yet, “With great historical events like this, there is always unpredictability,” says Hassan. Few could have predicted the uprisings would happen when they did and where they did – with recent events in Sudan and Algeria also a big surprise to many.

One thing is certain, however: “The genie is out of the bottle,” says Hassan. “One thing we shouldn’t take at all for granted now, is the status quo.”

Click here to read the full article on Cyprus Mail.

On December 1, the EastWest Institute (EWI) and the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) hosted the ninth “Brussels MENA Briefing”—a series of after-work briefings on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region—on “Kuwait and the post-Sheikh Sabah Era.” 

Speakers included Vice Admiral (ret.) Ahmad Al-Mulla, advisor to the Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense, and Dr. Courtney Freer, assistant professorial research fellow at the Middle East Center of the London School of Economics. Well-known experts on the Persian Gulf region and members of the European policy community virtually attended this briefing, which was held under the Chatham House Rule.

Speakers began by highlighting the main accomplishments of Kuwait’s late Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Shabah. Among them, his efforts towards women empowerment, strategic development policies and a neutral foreign policy aimed at protecting Kuwait from conflicts in its immediate neighborhood stood out for the speakers—in particular, Kuwait’s neutrality as a country located in the “triangle of danger” between Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Many top officials perceived Sheikh Sabah as a “humanitarian leader” with Kuwait being on the forefront of financial aid and the coordination of donor conferences for countries in conflict. 

Both speakers held that the legacy Sheikh Sabah leaves behind cannot be filled by his successor and half-brother Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah alone; the entire Kuwaiti political establishment must invest in continuing the path outlined by the late Sheikh Sabah. Speakers noted that Sheikh Nawaf has left the Kuwaiti cabinet untouched—an important indicator for demonstrating his commitment to ensuring continuity.

Among the most important challenges ahead, speakers emphasized the need to tackle comprehensively endemic corruption in both the private and public sectors . The economic transformations in light of the country’s demography, the changing geopolitics of energy and the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Kuwait’s various business sectors require strategic and long-lasting readjustment policies.  

One speaker observed that Kuwait’s parliament is representative of the ethnic and sectarian diversity of the nation, a unique characteristic that ought  to be safeguarded. Participants held that this domestic pluralism entails a pluralistic foreign policy approach, which seeks to balance conflicting interests. This diversity is illustrated in the country’s tolerance of the political presense of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as its leniency towards  a powerful Shia parliamentary faction. Both experts argued that these disparate  political fractions impact the country’s foreign policy—for instance, in its overall pan-Arab outlook, as well as its continued support for the Palestinian cause. 

Considering the country’s efforts to “nationalize” the Kuwait private and public sector, one speaker pointed out that it remains to be seen whether this process will change public political attitudes, impacting the future composition of the parliament. Given the importance of this process, both speakers held that Sheikh Nawaf will be well-advised to not view his reign as a one-man show, but to seek the involvement of Kuwait’s entire political class.

Dates for upcoming Brussels MENA Briefings:

Tuesday, February 2, 2021: Topic to be confirmed

Event Reports from Previous Briefings:

The Biden Administration’s Middle East Policy and Transatlantic Relations

The Economic Dimension of the Conflict in Yemen 

Jordanian Foreign Policy in Light of Regional Geopolitical Shifts

How to Rescue Sudan’s Transition Process?

A New Iraqi Government in Place: Challenges and Opportunities for Iraq in its Neighborhood

The Status Quo of the Libyan Conflict: Is the Berlin Process Obsolete? 

Post-Sultan Qaboos Oman: Transition Opportunities and Challenges

Iran After Parliamentary Elections

On November 30, the EastWest Institute (EWI), together with its partners at the German Chambers of Commerce in Algiers and Casablanca (AHKs), held a webinar entitled “The Startup Industry: Challenges and Opportunities for Cooperation”—the fifth in a series of virtual meetings as part of EWI’s ongoing Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue. The webinar brought together six entrepreneurs, three Algerian and three Moroccan, to take part in a cross-border business dialogue aiming to promote greater economic connectivity between the two countries in the startup sector.

The Startup Industry

Startup initiatives are a relatively new phenomenon within the Maghreb, with regional countries varying their measures to cultivate a thriving ecosystem for young businesses. Numerous startups have sprung up throughout the region recently, especially the three main countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, as innovative leaders pursue sustainable and inclusive approaches to their respective country’s development. As a new generation of workers begin to graduate from university, the region is experiencing a growing trend of fresh graduates increasingly seeking opportunities in the private sector instead of applying to safer governmental jobs in the public sector—a characteristic of previous generations. This growing entrepreneurial spirit not only needs to be harnessed, but must be actively encouraged so regional states can diversify their markets and explore new streams of revenue.  

The respective startup ecosystems in Algeria and Morocco are experiencing disparate levels of success. In Algeria, there remains plenty of room for government intervention in terms of promoting innovation and seeking means to attract investments. Local investors are familiar with bureaucratic hurdles to conducting business in the country, resulting in the negative conviction that the local startup ecosystem lacks the capacity to scale up. Morocco, on the other hand, boasts a more vibrant startup ecosystem with the country increasing its Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEM) from 5.6 to 8.8 percent between 2017 and 2018. Nevertheless, this is offset by the fact the country failed to continue this trajectory into 2019 as a lack of promotion and a culture of risk-aversion hindered the country’s burgeoning startup industry. 

Local Experience

The webinar assembled startup entrepreneurs from across a wide spectrum of business interests, including renewable energies, logistics management, communications and IT and digital solutions. Each of the startups represented differed in their business life span, ranging from eight years to only one month. This enabled EWI and its partners at the AHKs to ask a range of questions pertaining to the different stages of development required for founding a new business in the region, as well as the trials and tribulations which inevitably accompany such an endeavor in the world’s least economically integrated region. 

Consistent with previous webinars under the framework of  the Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue, participant testimonies affirm that opportunities for business collaboration across the border are rare. All the entrepreneurs present discussed their various projects in Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and North America, yet not one participant had any current avenues of business in the respective neighboring country. From an economic perspective, the current state of affairs is immensely counterproductive given the proximity, similarities in culture, shared desire of young graduates to develop startups, and market complementarity between the two countries. 

It must be noted however, that this dearth of bilateral trade is not a result of lack of trying from the perspective of business leaders on the ground. During the webinar and in previous project meetings, participants attested to a distinct lack of knowledge and trust in the respective markets on each side of the border. With this in mind, EWI, the AHKs and the participants of the webinar composed the following policy recommendations to help identify means to kickstart better commercial relations. 

Recommendations

Pool resources: A major concern for one of the participants who worked in digital solutions for the transport sector was the incurred cost due to a lack of synchronization between companies in the same industry. Companies on either side of the border possess the capacities to make operations more cost-efficient and environmental. However, to move beyond this current state of affairs, Algerian and Moroccan organizations need to pool resources to overcome this fragmentation.

Foster a more cooperative culture: In order to pool resources and develop more efficient and environmentally friendly operational practices, local companies must address the lack of trust, which currently hinders the region unlocking its economic potential. Fostering a culture of cooperation requires the sharing of information so organizations on either side of the border understand each other’s markets and learn how to navigate administrative bottlenecks and bureaucratic hurdles. 

Build on current successes: Despite the dire analyses of multiple international institutions regarding regional integration, there are some cooperation success stories in the Maghreb. The energy sector presents one of the flagship cooperation sectors in the region. This should act as a launching pad to explore new avenues of cooperation, such as joint regulation or an interconnected network of production lines. Startups could offer local assistance in developing these initiatives. 

Learn from the Tunisian model: Both Algerian and Moroccan participants praised Tunisian initiatives in the startup industry, which could act as a successful regional model in their respective countries to develop a healthier ecosystem for upcoming enterprises. Tunisian startups formed an association to harness their collective bargaining power to lobby the government in granting them economic subsidies and advantages. To date, there is no such Moroccan or Algerian union for startups to lobby for their collective needs. 

Encourage market access: The inability of both Algerian and Moroccan startups to found their own collective associations means young organizations often have to navigate their respective markets without any discernible structure or local administration. Private and governmental mistrust towards startups is a consequence of the lack of understanding in how startups operate. Market access can be encouraged by providing startups with financing and regulations tailored towards their particular needs. 

About the Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue

Despite its vast potential, the Maghreb region is often cited as being one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. The Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue project seeks to bring together Algerian and Moroccan business leaders from multiple business sectors with the aim of overcoming obstacles to bilateral trade between the two neighbors.

The dialogues center on topics vital to successful entrepreneurship in Algeria and Morocco such as food security, agriculture, healthcare, the impact of digitalization and new technologies and energy—with a particular focus on how to attract quality investment, ensure environmental protection and empower businesswomen.

COVID-19 has unfortunately had a detrimental effect on the overall operation and schedule of the project. Each meeting was envisioned as an in-person conference such as the first event on the agricultural industry, which took place as a two-day delegation to Berlin to attend the city’s Green Week—one of the world’s largest international agriculture trade affairs. Nevertheless, EWI has moved the project online in order to maintain the good momentum of the project generated in Berlin. Although this means the discussions between participants are less interactive, they proved no less intensive nor productive as the following policy recommendations attest.

Click here to read a French translation of this event report. 

Click here to read an Arabic translation of this event report.

Links to Reports of Previous Briefings:

Cooperation in the Automobile Industry

Women’s Empowerment and Entrepreneurship: Challenges and Opportunities

The Agricultural and Food Manufacturing Sector

The discussion, chaired by CRC's Dr. Ranj Alaaldin, will focus on the main challenges to stabilization and reconstruction, the future of democracy promotion in the region, reconciliation and peace-building and the role that international actors like the United States and Europe can play to constrain the fallout from conflicts and their second-order effects. 

Participants include EWI Vice President of the MENA Program Kawa Hassan, Frances Brown from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jomana Qaddour from Atlantic Council and Emad Badi from the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance.

Click here to learn more and register.