Europe

In 1973, US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, following a period of American preoccupation with Vietnam and China, declared a “year of Europe.” More recently, after President Barack Obama announced a US strategic “pivot,” or rebalancing, toward Asia, many Europeans worried about American neglect. Now, with an ongoing refugee crisis, Russia’s occupation of eastern Ukraine and illegal annexation of Crimea, and the threat of British withdrawal from the European Union, 2016 may become, by necessity, another “year of Europe” for American diplomacy.

Regardless of slogans, Europe retains impressive power resources and is a vital interest for the United States. Although the US economy is four times larger than that of Germany, the economy of the 28-member EU is equal to that of the US, and its population of 510 million is considerably larger than America’s 320 million.

Yes, American per capita income is higher, but in terms of human capital, technology, and exports, the EU is very much an economic peer. Until the crisis of 2010, when fiscal problems in Greece and elsewhere created anxiety in financial markets, some economists had speculated that the euro might soon replace the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency.

In terms of military resources, Europe spends less than half of what the US allocates to defense, but has more men and women under arms. Britain and France possess nuclear arsenals and a limited capacity for overseas intervention in Africa and the Middle East. Both are active partners in the airstrikes against the Islamic State.

As for soft power, Europe has long had wide appeal, and Europeans have played a central role in international institutions. According to a recent study by the Portland Group, Europe accounted for 14 of the top 20 countries. The sense that Europe was uniting around common institutions made it strongly attractive for the EU’s neighbors, though this eroded somewhat after the financial crisis.

The key question in assessing Europe’s power resources is whether the EU will retain enough cohesion to speak with a single voice on a wide range of international issues, or remain a limited grouping defined by its members’ different national identities, political cultures, and foreign policies.

The answer varies by issue. On questions of trade, for example, Europe is the equal of the US and able to balance American power. Europe’s role in the International Monetary Fund is second only to that of the US (although the financial crisis dented confidence in the euro).

On anti-trust issues, the size and attractiveness of the European market has meant that American firms seeking to merge have had to gain approval from the European Commission as well as the US Justice Department. In the cyber world, the EU is setting the global standards for privacy protection, which US and other multinational companies cannot ignore.

But European unity faces significant limits. National identities remain stronger than a common European identity. Right-wing populist parties have included EU institutions among the targets of their xenophobia.

Legal integration is increasing within the EU, but the integration of foreign and defense policy remains limited. And British Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to reduce the powers of EU institutions and to subject the results of his negotiations with the Union’s leaders to a popular referendum by the end of 2017. If Britain votes no and exits the EU, the impact on European morale will be severe – an outcome that the US has made clear should be avoided, though there is little it could do to prevent it.

In the longer term, Europe faces serious demographic problems, owing to low birth rates and unwillingness to accept mass immigration. In 1900, Europe accounted for a quarter of the world’s population. By the middle of this century, it may account for just 6% – and almost a third will be older than 65.

Although the current immigration wave could be the solution to Europe’s long-term demographic problem, it is threatening European unity, despite the exceptional leadership of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In most European countries, the political backlash has been sharp, owing to the rapid rate of the inflows (more than a million people in the past year) and the Muslim background of many of the newcomers. Again, an important American diplomatic interest is at stake, but there is not much the US can do about it.

There is little long-term danger that Europe could become a threat to the US, and not only because of its low military expenditure. Europe has the world’s largest market, but it lacks unity. And its cultural industries are impressive, though, in terms of higher education, whereas 27 of its universities are ranked in the global top 100, the US accounts for 52. If Europe overcame its internal differences and tried to become a global challenger to the US, these assets might partly balance American power, but would not equal it.

For US diplomats, however, the danger is not a Europe that becomes too strong, but one that is too weak. When Europe and America remain allied, their resources are mutually reinforcing.

Despite inevitable friction, which is slowing the negotiation of the proposed Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, economic separation is unlikely, and Obama will travel to Europe in April to promote the TTIP. Direct investment in both directions is higher than with Asia and helps knit the economies together. And while Americans and Europeans have sniped at each other for centuries, they share values of democracy and human rights more with each other than with any other regions of the world.

Neither a strong US nor a strong Europe threaten the vital or important interests of the other. But a Europe that weakens in 2016 could damage both sides.

To read this article on Social Europe, click here.

The EastWest Institute's Global Cooperation in Cyberspace Initiative has announced its work program for 2016-17. The Action Agenda 2016-2017 also reviews the initiative's accomplishments during 2015. 

In 2016, EWI will advocate for change in cyberspace security policies in governments and corporate headquarters worldwide, including recommendations that will help convict more cyber criminals, make information and communications products more secure and slow the cyber arms race.

New work areas include addressing such international cyber challenges as the spread of strong encryption and the Internet of Everything. This and other work will be supported through working meetings in person and online.

To enhance its reach and effectiveness, EWI has named Bruce McConnell, who directs the cyber initiative, as its Global Vice President. McConnell has relocated to San Francisco where he will continue to head EWI's cyberspace cooperation work. He will also solidify and expand support for all of EWI's programs in the western U.S. and the Far East. 

Read the full report here.

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At the Gala, former Finnish president and longtime EWI stalwart Martti Ahtisaari was awarded the John Edwin Mroz award in recognition of his extraordinary contributions to peace in the last decades.  From Namibia to Kosovo, in his national and multinational roles, Ahtisaari put into practice that which EWI represents:  the power to build trust among individuals and institutions whose interests may not align; the ability to forecast solutions long before others see them; and the good will and patience to negotiate peaceful outcomes, in the tradition of the very best leaders in the world whose empathy and understanding allows them to see problems the way others might.

Finnish UN Permanent Representative Kai Sauer and EWI Board Chair Ross Perot Jr proudly presented the award, established in honor of EWI’s founder and longtime president, as a tribute to a man whose illustrious career has in many ways paralleled our own.

Inspired by the achievements of President Ahtisaari, the EWI team will continue to build its strong ties in China in the coming weeks.  It’s part of EWI’s strategic commitment to high-level understanding and trust-building between Chinese and American leaders, a commitment that has grown into a robust and active set of meetings in recent years.  

In November, I’ll lead the U.S. delegation to the annual U.S.-China High-Level Security Dialogue in Beijing, where we will meet with counterparts from the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese government, and major Chinese think tanks and media organizations.  The experts on both sides will build on the trust and experience developed in recent years to discuss many of the issues that were on the agenda when China’s President Xi Jinping visited the United States this September and met both with President Obama and other world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly.  

From bilateral issues, to regional security challenges, to high-tech developments, this team will help deepen our understanding of the key issues both sides agree need to be addressed in order to head off conflicts before they start and anticipate new areas where our efforts to build trust can pay off in promoting stability in the years to come.

EWI will then return to Beijing in December with a team of former senior U.S. generals and military experts for the next iteration of the Sanya Initiative, in which we tackle Chinese and American mil-mil topics.  In the ranks of our distinguished delegation will be three former members of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Sanya is another of the processes in which EWI fosters deeper trust among those who continue to wield considerable influence with incumbent top defense officials in both countries.

It’s wonderful to be looking back at our achievements of the past; and it’s even more wonderful to see how that legacy is contributing to peace and stability in arguably the single most important bilateral relationship in the world today, that of China and America. There’s plenty more that EWI is planning before the end of the year, but these upcoming meetings in China, and the ongoing U.S.-China trust-building efforts they represent, show our deep commitment to building on the trust we help create and resolving outstanding issues before those issues become crises or conflicts.