South Asia

As India and Pakistan agreed to open an important cross-border connection between Sikh religous sights, EWI's Asia-Pacific fellow Rizwana Abbasi warns that "meaningful and constructive dialogue for resolution of contentious issues between India and Pakistan remains a distant dream."

Click here to read the full article on South Asian Voices.

Deterrence theory suggests that a stable deterrence moderates the security dilemma between rival nuclear states. Nearly four decades ago, Kenneth Waltz, a leading nuclear optimist, advocated that the spread of nuclear weapons would guarantee peace and resolve complex security problems between countries. However, twenty years into their respective nuclear programs, India and Pakistan continue to perceive threats from each other—mistrust that has resulted in an intense nuclear arms build-up. With India’s ambition to become a global power and Pakistan’s continuing quest for security, nuclear deterrence remains unstable, and peace fragile, in South Asia. In order to promote peace in the foreseeable future, the two states require less rivalry and more understanding.

Rivalry is enduring due to divergent strategic directions, evolving competitive technologies, a growing power imbalance, the Kashmir conflict, and the transnational activities of non-state actors in the region. Recent events such as the terrorist attack on an Indian military base in Uri, claims of Indian surgical strikes on Pakistan, and Kulbhushan Yadav’s arrest in Baluchistan demonstrate the intolerant patterns of interaction between the two countries that threaten conflict escalation to the nuclear level. To generate harmony, India and Pakistan must allow themselves the ability to make strategic compromises and the flexibility to resume dialogue.

Read the full article here on South Asian Voices.

Image: "Flags Lowered" (CC BY-NC 2.0) by Jack Zalium

The EastWest Institute has assembled an overview of the challenges and opportunities facing Afghanistan, China and the wider region as they pursue China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for a cooperative, mutually-beneficial way forward. These conclusions are accompanied by a series of recommendations pertaining to the implementation of BRI and other initiatives as well as to the adoption of a coherent regional economic vision in the face of political, security and development challenges.

Click here to download the full report.

Photo: "Afghani Supply Trucks" (CC BY-NC 2.0) by Scorpio's Sting

The World Economic Forum (WEF)'s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, is a major creative force for engaging top leaders from across the world to undertake joint action relating to events for shaping the global, regional and industry agendas. Having attained a reputation for great integrity, the WEF is not tied to any political, partisan or national interests; it is "committed to improving the State of the World."

Over 3,000 leaders from business (representing hundreds of WEF member corporate companies), government and international organizations, civil society and religious organizations academia, media and the arts converged in Davos from January 23-27. This year's theme was "Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World," one of the aims being, "The fractures that have emerged politically, economically and socially must not foster intolerance, indecision and inaction. The 48th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting therefore aims to rededicate leaders from all walks of life to developing a shared narrative to improve the state of the world."

Top global leaders, in addition to the U.S. President included rime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Indian PM Narendra Modi, Italian PM Paolo Gentiloni, French President Emmanuel Macron, British PM Theresa May, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, Argentina President Mauricio Macri, Brazil's President Michel Temer, PM Norway Erna Solberg, PM of Sweden Stefan Löfven, and Lebanon's Council of Ministers President Saad Al-Hariri. Among the Royals were King Abdullah-II and Queen Rania of Jordan, Queen Maxima of the Netherlands and Prince Turki al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia. The global business sector was represented by, among others, Facebook's Sheryl Sandburg, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft's Bill Gates, Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma and IBM CEO Ginni Rometty were among the dozens of others.

PM Abbasi was accompanied by Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif, Minister Saira Afzal Tarar, Minister of State Marriyum Aurangzeb and Minister of State Anusha Rahman. Unlike last year when the then PM Nawaz Sharif did not address any of the 400 or more sessions, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was among the five panelists who spoke at the "Belt and Road Impact" session on January 24. Pakistan is partnering China's high profile initiative through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); this focuses on improving connectivity and cooperation among Asian countries, Africa, Europe and China. PM Abbasi also interacted with heads of States and governments in a special session of the Informal Group of WEF leaders (IGWEL). Meeting with many government and business leaders in bi-lateral sessions his focus was on encouraging the private sector to invest in Pakistan.

PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was the Chief Guest at the traditional 'Pakistan Breakfast' hosted jointly by Pathfinder Group and Martin Dow Group. The PM was quite eloquent about the present economic and security situation, the geo-political changes taking place in adjacent regions, its effect on the region and Pakistan and what a game-changer and an economic force-multiplier CPEC is to Pakistan. What was very noticeable was his confidence and comfort, particularly in the Q&A Session. It was a great honour for Pakistan that the Chinese guests requested that their Ambassador in Geneva say a few words. The high point of the Pakistan Breakfast was the presence of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. 24 years earlier, I was privileged to accompany his mother as her aide in Davos inside the Congress Center. I have never ever seen charisma like hers ever in Davos. PM Abbasi graciously acknowledged his presence; what a great day for democracy!

This year the Pathfinder Group and Martin Dow Group took a private sector initiative establishing a small but representative Pakistan Pavilion in the Greenhouse of the Hotel Panorama. The first in WEF history, the intent of the Pavilion was to showcase Pakistan's image in a soft and positive light. This experimental initiative was a walk-in affair where Pakistani entrepreneurs/officials in IT media, Financial Services (including microfinance and financial inclusion), philanthropy, etc were available to interact with international investors, experts and officials. On both the days, speakers from Pakistan spoke about Pakistan's economy, gender empowerment, law and order situation, etc. At the invitation of Ikram Sehgal and Jawed Akhai, Dr. Ishrat Husain journeyed to Davos to speak about the challenge and the opportunities in Pakistan. At a dinner at the Schatzalp on Tuesday among those who spoke were Shabbar Zaidi of Ferguson, Dr. Daniel Ritz of PTCL, Jerry Torres of AES Torres (USA), James Rubin former U.S. Press Secretary to the President, Dr. Marc Siegel of California (USA), Dr. Huma Baqai, Sidra Iqbal, Aamer Mahmood of CPNE, Ambassador Zamir Akram, SPD, Jawed Akhai and Zarrar. Among those who braved the cold were Saifuddin Zoomkawala, Editor Business Recorder Wamiq A. Zuberi and Fawad Rana.

Pakistan's private sector was represented by Javed Akhai, CEO Martin Dow Chemicals, Hussain Dawood, Group Chairman Engro Corporation Ltd, Saad Hamid, CEO Demo Enterprises, Dr. Sania Nishtar, Founder and President Heartlife, my son Zarrar Sehgal Deputy Chairman Pathfinder Group and Ali Siddiqui, Vice Chairman JS Bank. Special Assistant to the PM, the person responsible for the PM's visit to Davos. Davos presents a huge potential for Pakistan, it is imperative that Pakistani political and business leaders rethink the importance of participating in the WEF Annual Meetings. The global village has become increasingly inter-connected and fast-paced with technological breakthrough, demographic shifts and political transformations having far-reaching societal and economic consequences. With the world becoming so fluid and changeable, leaders will have to share real-time insights and innovations on how best to navigate the future and inter-act positively on a plethora of issues. Mostly bi-lateral meetings do benefit Pakistan but our negative image can only be erased by casting a longer "soft" shadow over the Davos world stage.

The overwhelming consensus among the world's rich, powerful and/or knowledgeable is that the WEF Annual Meeting at Davos truly remains the most important economic and socio-political event in the world calendar. The WEF's mission to "improve the state of the world" means engaging top global leaders to collaborate in shaping the global, regional and industry agendas. Davos gets your narrative not only heard but understood, while going there is important, to make it happen you have to be heard in public sessions. A handful of Pakistani businessmen at Davos can never shoulder the burden of projecting Pakistan. Davos is a unique opportunity to showcase Pakistan. It is, therefore, imperative that our major business leaders use the Davos platform to be counted as the outstanding entrepreneurs they are.

Photo: "48th World Economic Forum 2018" (CC BY-ND 2.0) by GovernmentZA

On February 10, Abu Dhabi awarded an Indian consortium a 10 percent stake in one of its offshore oil concession areas. This announcement is significant as it marks India’s maiden entry into the Gulf’s upstream hydrocarbons sector.

The 600 million USD deal was facilitated by a recent upswing in political ties, following a spate of reciprocal visits by the UAE-Indian leadership and the consequent flow of bilateral ties.

In 2015, after becoming the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the UAE in 34 years, Narendra Modi returned on February 10-11 for the World Government Summit in Dubai.

In the meantime, the UAE’s de facto leader, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces H.H. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited India in 2016 and 2017. 

This momentum in bilateral ties helped surpass the traditional areas of collaboration — oil, trade and expatriate workers. To tackle contemporary challenges of mutual interest, the two countries signed the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement” last year. This newfound government-to-government camaraderie and strengthening of ties allows the two countries to not only focus on new economic opportunities like food security and frontier science, but also helps them tackle their mutual security concerns in the Middle East and South Asia. 

This will be enabled through improved tactical defense cooperation, joint military exercises and training, naval collaboration, partnerships in defense production, and combined action against religious extremism. 

While this agenda will evolve over the next few years, it is worth exploring the possibility of converting the strategic bilateral association into tactical multilateral partnerships in certain economic and security domains.

In the current context, the rationale for multilateralism is that many of the UAE’s and India’s individual interests or joint concerns are unlikely to be optimally addressed by mere bilateral cooperation mechanisms.

While the immediate economic, political and strategic needs could be met by pursuing bilateral track, long-term interests – which often depend on a third country or more — this is best tackled through a multilateral strategy. Pooling of resources, ideas and efforts would not only be cost effective and efficient, but could possibly yield better results as well.

To this end, the UAE and India are engaged in separate multilateral partnerships with various countries. They are also part of several multilateral forums, but many are too global in nature to promote their common interests nearer to home.

Instead they could focus on collaborating in regional organizations to promote multilateral engagement, like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium. The IORA is crucial to promoting the economic interests of 21 member countries, including the UAE and India, and to safeguarding mercantile shipping lanes from piracy.

Such an association would gel with India’s vision of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region). This promotes an ocean-based “blue economy,” wherein sustainable economic development is linked to security.

Another potential area is the defense sector. Both the UAE and India are negotiating with France to purchase Rafale fighter jets. This offers a chance for Paris-supervised regional manufacturing of spare parts and collaboration in aviation software technology that could be cost-effective for both.

Recently, New Delhi’s proactive diplomacy has sought to expand and intensify ties in South, West, East and Central Asia, which offers the UAE scope to enhance its own interests by teaming up with India. Opportunities include the following:

• The UAE considering investment in India’s North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), a network of ship, rail, and road routes between India and Europe, via the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia. It links the Indian Ocean and Gulf with the Caspian Sea, making the current routes shorter and reducing transport costs. Either Afghanistan or Central Asian countries, where the UAE has stakes, could become potential venues for multilateral cooperation.

• Beyond the potential NSTC opportunity in Afghanistan, the UAE and India are also committed to the war-torn country’s stability and welfare, paving the way for cooperation on combatting terrorism and coordinating their development assistance and infrastructure projects, thus strengthening the Afghan government.

• The UAE and India could also team up in Africa by combining their strengths of wealth and technological expertise to augment, for example, telemedicine and food production and storage facilities, which have great potential to improve the quality of living in remote parts of the continent.

• India is also part of the Japan-promoted “Asia-Africa Growth Corridor” or “Freedom Corridor,” connecting the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, a potential point of interest to the UAE given its recent focus on expanding business and strategic opportunities in Africa.

• India-Japan joint ventures also open the door for the UAE to promote and partake in engagements arising from the recent quadrilateral cooperation among the mainstream Indo-Pacific countries, including Australia and the United States.

Together, the quest to advance UAE-India bilateral ties through some of these partnerships also adds value to South-South cooperation and contributes to partially fulfilling the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Finally, there is also the opportunity for both countries to work with other like-minded countries to draw the contours of a more effective security architecture for the region.

UAE-India relations have a newfound level of strategic depth, and there remains enormous potential for collaboration on multilateral initiatives. While it is every country’s sovereign right to pursue the strategy that suits it best, there is little to argue against pooling of opportunities and resources, particularly when shared interests pave the way for discernible results.

There is an increasing mutual recognition between Abu Dhabi and New Delhi, who along with other strategic partners, are poised to leverage multilateralism to improve economic efficiency, enhance international cooperation and contribute to peace and security in the region. The effects are not instantaneous, but the two countries are demonstrating the value and benefit of an approach that focuses on commercial, military and diplomatic partnership supporting mutual interests and regional stability.

Dr. N. Janardhan is Senior Research Fellow, Gulf-Asia Programme, Emirates Diplomatic Academy, and Honorary Fellow, University of Exeter.  

The views expressed in this post reflect those of the author and not that of the EastWest Institute.

Photo: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Abu_Dhabi_Skyline_from_Breakwaters_Marina.jpg

The Asian giants must devise ways to make their respective initiatives less competitive geopolitically and more cooperative geo-economically.

As 2017 drew to a close, Beijing made two surprising proposals to further the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—one, extending the China-Pakistan Economic Cooperation (CPEC) to Afghanistan; and two, linking Pakistan’s Gwadar and Iran’s Chabahar Ports.

These propositions assume significance because as BRI continues to hog the global limelight, India has been quietly promoting its own North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC). These infrastructure plans not only intensify Sino-Indo competition—even potentially working at cross-purposes—but also risk duplicating partnership opportunities for several countries, including those in the Gulf interested in contributing to the projects.

Beijing’s announcement of the BRI (originally known as the One Belt and One Road initiative) in 2013 seeks to reinvent the age-old “Silk Road.” The plan is to link China with the economies of Southeast and Central Asia by land and those of the Middle East and Europe by sea.

After being in cold storage since its announcement in 2000, the NSTC made progress with two dry runs in 2014. The project envisions a network of ship, rail and road routes between India and Europe, via the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia. Linking the Indian Ocean and Gulf with the Caspian Sea, the project would make the current routes shorter by almost half and reduce costs by about 30 percent.

Both initiatives are, no doubt, designed to energize Chinese and Indian domestic markets and improve both powers’ international standing. In time, they may also promote infrastructure, business ventures and economies of all the countries falling in and around the projects’ paths.

While the end destination—Europe—is also common to both projects, from a Gulf perspective, the involvement of Oman and Iran in the initiatives is another shared denominator.

With multiple funding deals spanning water, energy and transport sectors, China is keen to use the BRI to multiply the current 31 billion USD bilateral trade with Iran by 20in the next 10 years.

On the other hand, the commissioning of the first phase of the Chabahar Port in Iran—which is funded partly by India—in late 2017 is a sign of recent progress associated with the NSTC. In fact, India sent its first consignment of wheat to Afghanistan through Chabahar in October last year.

New Delhi is also investing heavily in rail-road developments linking various parts of Afghanistan with Chabahar. The port will then formally be linked to the NSTC, which currently connects Bandar Abbas to Russia, Eurasia and Europe.

At present, BRI dwarfs NSTC in scope and scale. While the BRI has attracted the interest of about 60 countries, the NSTC currently involves only about 15 countries.

More importantly, while the BRI encourages bilateral trade agreements between China and individual countries, the NSTC strengthens multilateral partnerships. Many countries that lack the financial capability to bankroll the development process are nonetheless able to engage with the initiative, encouraging more widespread participation.

Geopolitical Grey Areas

Amid these similarities, differences and opportunities, lie a few grey areas, particularly concerning geopolitical issues and scope for cooperation.

As Afghanistan is already a member of NSTC, China’s bid to include Afghanistan in the BRI, via CPEC, could fuel competition with India, especially since it also involves Pakistan. Adding to the complexity is Pak-Afghan friction. Despite the emphasis on economic development, the Chinese bid to get Afghanistan on board the CPEC may buffer the BRI against possible Taliban sabotage efforts.

India has, thus far, spurned the BRI and has protested the CPEC project because it runs through Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims is integral to India. China, however, rejects this view, stressing that the project has nothing to do with territorial disputes.

Further, India aided Chabahar Port faces competition from the not-too-distant China-aided Gwadar Port in Pakistan. While Beijing’s call to link the two ports is economically wise, it is politically loaded.

A unique development, however, is the limited scope for the United States in both projects. While Washington might decline to be part of the BRI because of China—an imminent challenger to U.S. global predominance—it would be just as disinclined to be part of the NSTC because of Russia’s stake.

Yet, Iran’s stake in both ventures is likely to get the U.S. interested. While sanctions on the Islamic Republic have stalled progress in the past, the possibility of new sanctions by the Trump administration could pose fresh challenges to both initiatives, thus pitting the U.S. against China and potentially throwing a spanner in Gulf countries’ interests in the projects.

As a result, here are two points for consideration.

One, China and India could devise ways to make their respective ventures less competitive geopolitically and more cooperative geo-economically, both for their own benefit and for the welfare of the other countries involved.

One possible way of achieving this could be to de-emphasize India-China ties from New Delhi’s proximity with Washington and Beijing’s support for Islamabad. This could help the two countries with “oversized egos” to progress from “INCH (India and China) towards MILES (Millennium of Exceptional Synergy).”

Such an understanding could then facilitate India’s participation in the BRI and China’s cooperation in the NSTC.

Two, while the Gulf countries could take the easy option of separately getting on board with both initiatives, wherever possible and beneficial, it may also be worth promoting the idea of connecting the two Asian projects either in the region or beyond.

Since animosity with Iran is likely to be the biggest obstacle for Gulf countries’ participation in either regional initiative, Afghanistan or Central Asia could become potential venues for multilateral cooperation among the concerned countries.

Such a joint pooling of opportunities and resources would make it a win-win proposition for all.

Dr. N. Janardhan is Senior Research Fellow, Gulf-Asia Programme, Emirates Diplomatic Academy and Honorary Fellow, University of Exeter.

The views expressed in this post reflect those of the author and not that of the EastWest Institute.

"PM Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by narendramodiofficial

On January 10, Ambassador Cameron Munter appeared on the David Webb Show to discuss the latest developments in the U.S.-Pakistani relations, including the Trump administration's announcement to withhold at least 900 million USD in security assistance to Pakistan until it takes action against militant groups. 

"Simply cutting (Pakistan) off and expecting Pakistanis to change behavior, to me, is just a short-term response," said the former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan.

Click here and here for soundbites from the interview.

Photo: "Pakistan Diaster Relief" (CC BY 2.0) by DVIDSHUB