Southwest Asia

An international high-level expert delegation, led by the EastWest Institute (EWI), discussed with representatives of the Ghani administration the regional economic growth proposals developed over three years of the Afghanistan Reconnected Process. The delegation’s visit to Kabul allowed it not only to advocate and update recommendations to unlock regional trade developed during previous years, but also to share the findings of the Missions to Pakistan, India and Tajikistan carried out by the institute over the course of 2015.

Download the report here.

Given the present situation in the Middle East and the connected problems in adjoining regions, this timely initiative to bring focus firmly on Afghanistan was badly needed. Efforts to revive the stalled Afghan peace talks between the Afghan govt and Taliban group must be encouraged.  

Seven foreign ministers are participants, including all the four neighbouring countries of Pakistan.  Visiting Islamabad for the second time this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, by Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani and unusually upbeat on arrival, India’s Minister for External Affairs Ms Sushma Swaraj with Iran’s Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif making his third visit in about four months.  High-ranking delegations from 14 participating countries, 17 supporting countries and 12 international and regional organisations included the former US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olson (now US Representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan), with senior representatives coming from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and the UAE. 

An Afghanistan and Turkey joint initiative, the “Istanbul Process” provides a fresh agenda for regional cooperation by engaging the ‘Heart of Asia’ countries in sincere and result-oriented cooperation to secure a peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan.  Political initiatives between land-locked Afghanistan and its near and extended neighbours will include a continuous and effective dialogue concerning all issues of common interest and importance. “Confidence Building Measures” (CBMs)  identified in the “Istanbul Process” document enhances the building of trust and confidence among the regional countries.  Existing regional organisations have an important role in strengthening and promoting of economic cooperation and integration, improved security and enhanced people-to-people relations. Not a substitute for existing efforts, this process complements the work of regional organisations, particularly relating to Afghanistan.

Following his inauguration, Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani had made a courageous outreach to Pakistan, this included a historic visit to Pakistan’s GHQ.  Hopes were raised very high, to quote my article of Nov 20, 2014, “The Making of History”, “Throwing aside diplomatic norms, the Afghanistan’s President visited GHQ immediately after landing at Islamabad. A foreign Head of State heading straight towards a military HQ on arrival carries a lot more than ceremonial importance, the Afghan President means business because he well understands where the real power concerning national security rests. Subsequently Ashraf Ghani described his discussions the next day with the Pakistani PM as “a shared vision to serve as the heart of Asia, ensuring economic integration by enhancing connectivity between South and Central Asia through energy, gas and oil pipelines becoming a reality and not remaining a dream. The narrative for the future must include the most neglected of our people becoming stakeholders in a prosperous economy in stable and peaceful countries, our faiths are linked because terror knows no boundaries. We have overcome obstacles of 13 years in three days, we will not permit the past to destroy the future,” unquote. 

The past came to haunt us when the last minute news of the death of Mullah Omar, the former spiritual head of the Taliban, was deliberately leaked, motivated by “spoilers” to not only derail the talks but raise serious doubts about Pakistan’s intentions.  With this huge setback the talks failed and Kabul witnessed several major terrorist attacks, forcing Ashraf Ghani to backtrack on his peace initiative, deciding to only resume talks when Pakistan was ready to talk “honestly” about peace in Afghanistan.  This week’s conference is a real opportunity for the two countries to work out their differences and negotiate a settlement. To quote former Afghan govt official (and now Consultant) Habib Wayand, “This Conference is a chance to out-flank the “spoilers” on both sides and produce a far-sighted vision for the region, producing strategies for achieving lasting peace and prosperity.” For its part Afghanistan needs to avoid pursuing irresponsible and irrational anti-Pakistan agendas, blaming Pakistan for every terrorist incident.  Kabul needs to concentrate on job-creation to prevent the exodus of young Afghans from the country and/or their being recruited by insurgent groups.

Peace in Afghanistan will create opportunities for greater economic links between Central Asia and South Asia.  Afghanistan has been conducting its foreign trade largely through Pakistan and could facilitate Pakistan for its trade with Central Asia and, more importantly, for bringing electricity and gas from Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan into South Asia. To quote my article of Dec 12, 2014 a year ago, “Reconnecting Afghanistan”, “Economic resurgence for land-locked countries requires facilitating trade to and through their territory.  The EastWest Institute (EWI), a New York-based leading US think tank, headed by Ross Perot Jr, initiated the “Abu Dhabi Process” — a cross-border trade dialogue co-funded by Abu Dhabi and Germany — between Afghanistan and the countries on its periphery. Hosted by the EWI, the recent Istanbul conference encouraged businesses in South and Central Asia to themselves take necessary initiatives to unlock trade and kick-start the war-ravaged Afghan economy.” 

Welcoming Ms Sushma Swaraj to Islamabad, Advisor to the PM Sartaj Aziz said that beyond the confines of the Conference itself, bi-lateral discussions between India and Pakistan focussed on resumption of composite dialogue between the two countries but included various matters.  He had earlier said, “The visit is part of efforts to restart peace dialogue plagued by militant attacks and distrust. This is a good beginning. The deadlock has eased to some extent.” Modi’s Govt seems set on a “course correction”, maybe PCB Chairman Shahryar Khan will not have to bend on his knees begging India anymore for resumption of cricket ties.

For Pakistan it was important to showcase the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an economic force-multiplier for peace and stability in the region.  With its vast pool of skilled manpower to go with its enormous raw material reserves, this country has the potential of becoming one of the most powerful economic engines in the region.

Whether it is Paris, Mali, San Bernardino, Yemen, Libya or the Iraq/Syria virtual cauldron, the world is in a state close to undeclared world war where borders are of least (or even no) consequence given the rise of the “Islamic State” in the areas adjacent to Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey (with Kurdistan, a State that is not a State thrown in).  Every small step to contain such destructive and brutal forces is a giant step towards peace and stability in the world.  The “Heart of Asia” initiative is an appropriate epitaph for our brave soldiers who have selflessly shed blood giving the ultimate sacrifice securing Pakistan and making it peaceful.

Click here to read Ikram Sehgal's article "Reconnecting Afghanistan".

Click here to read EWI's report on "Afghanistan Reconnected: Advocacy and Outreach Mission to Tajikistan".

Professor Joseph Samuel Nye Jr. is the former Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He currently serves on the Harvard faculty as a University Distinguished Service Professor. Along with Robert Keohane, he founded the theory of “neo-liberalism” in international relations, and more recently coined the often-used phrases of “soft power” and “smart power”. He is one of the world’s foremost intellectuals in the fields of political science, diplomacy and international relations. A 2011 TRIP survey ranked him as the sixth most influential scholar in the field of international relations in the last twenty years, and in October 2014 he was appointed by the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to the Foreign Affairs Policy Board. 

A quarter century has passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall – November 1989. Many strategic analysts believe that the United States is still using the same pattern of collapse of communism in the East bloc to confront Iran. In the “Soft Power: The Means To Success In World Politics”, you have pointed to the American experience as well as the designation of the Marshall Plan as the means to undermine the Soviet soft power components. Do you believe that the same pattern can be adopted from the Cold War to undermine Iran’s soft power?

I do not think the situation of Iran today is like the Cold War. Communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union collapsed from it own internal economic contradictions. The Marshall Plan was forty years earlier and designed to help West European economies recover from the devastation of World War II. The Soviet Union lost soft power after its invasions on Hungary and Czechoslovakia. If there is a lesson in this for Iran, it is to free up its markets and society, and beware of interventions in neighboring countries.

This rationale has major drawbacks: essentially because Soviet Russia and Iran are profoundly different in not just their ideological makeup but the nature of their soft power. Iran’s Islamic Republic draws its narrative from Shia Islam, while Soviet Russia was born from atheist Marxism. Several critics of the US actually believe the country has ignored those fundamental and philosophical differences which exist in between Iran and Soviet Russia. How do you understand Washington’s position vis-à-vis Iran and are we seeing a repeat of the Cold War strategy here? In which case can this approach really serve the US?

That is correct, but remember that Shia Islam is a minority and Iran should be wary of intervening in sectarian disputes. I do not see this as a repeat of a Cold War strategy. President Obama expressed an openness to dialogue right from the beginning of his presidency. Iran was initially reluctant to engage in that dialogue.

Although the Soviet Union collapsed and communism was to some degree defeated – Russia after all came to embrace capitalism, Moscow nevertheless preserved its political independence by remaining a non-aligned superpower. Is it not possible therefore to envisage that Iran will accomplish such feat – in that its goals might stray from the initial “revolutionary mindset” but still act an opposition to American imperialism? After all there are more than one way to resist and challenge.

Capitalism in Russia is highly distorted by corruption. As I show in my book, “Is the American Century Over?” Russia is heavily dependent on one “crop” (energy) for two thirds of its exports. It also faces a demographic decline. This is not good, because declining powers often take greater risks such as Putin engages in now in his invasion of Ukraine and his intervention in Syria. I have no idea what the future of Iran will be, but it would be a mistake to model it on Russia.

President Richard Nixon called the US’ negotiations with Soviet Russia a “victory without war”. What President Nixon introduced and President Ronald Reagan followed into was a series of non-military actions which led to the ‘internal collapse’ of a country.President Barack Obama alluded a similar strategy, when, in an interview he argued that the path taken by both Nixon and Reagan vis-à-vis the Soviet Union and China inspired his own policies. Taking into account that his comments were made on the wake of the Iranian nuclear deal do you think the US is looking for “containment” instead of a real rapprochement? Is Obama replicating a Cold War scenario?

As I said above, I do not think Obama is following a Cold War strategy. My personal view is that the Middle East is involved in decades long series of revolutions, primarily in Sunni areas, which outsiders like the United States have little capacity to control. In that sense, containing the spread of ISIS and its successors makes sense, but large scale intervention like the war in Iraq does not make sense. Where Iran will fit in all this will depend on Iran’s behavior.

Will this Iran nuclear deal lead to an increase of America’s footprint in the ME and therefore see Iran lose influence?

I do not think the Iran nuclear deal will increase the US footprint nor necessarily erode Iran’s influence. Much will depend on how Iran chooses to behave.

Do you think US’ efforts to increase its soft power and smart power in Iran will lead to a change in narrative within the country, in that Iranians will no longer look on America with suspicion and animosity?

In general, increased contacts can reduce the stereotypes of hostility that can develop among countries. I hope with time this will be the case between the US and Iran. Soft power can be a positive sum game from which both sides gain.

In a recent piece for National Interest, you wrote that the real challenge that the US is facing could be called “the rise of the rest”. Some authors such as Fareed Zakaria in his “Post-Americanism World”, are pointing to the same challenge. There are also philosophers who believe that America as “the” world superpower is coming to an end – For example American philosopher, Richard Rorty wrote in a piece for Decent magazine: “The American Century has ended (…) The spiritual life of secularist Westerners centered on hope for the realization of those ideals. As that hope diminishes, their life becomes smaller and meaner.” In view of such analysis, do you think the US can overcome those challenges stemming from its power and hegemony? Or is it the US has no clear awareness of such challenge?

Americans have worried about their decline since the early days of the founding fathers centuries ago. In the last half century there have been several cycles of declinism. This tells you more about American psychology than it does about relative power positions of countries. In my book, I explain why I do not think the American century is over. At the same time, the rise of transnational challenges like climate change, cyber terrorism, and international financial stability will require cooperation among countries. In that sense, the rise of the rest as well as the new transnational challenges will require the US to work with others. There will be no American imperialism or hegemony, but as the largest country, there will still be a need for leadership in organizing global collective goods.

In his September 16 address at a meeting with the IRGC commanders in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “cultural and political penetration is more dangerous than military and security threats.” You also referred to the ‘culture’ as one of the key elements of soft power – you mentioned both the US educational and popular cultures of America as powerful media – maybe here we could use the term Trojan horses. Iran’s leadership has repeatedly warned against such “cultural invasion”. Iranians have themselves naturally organized into movements to counteract Western cultural intrusion, thus manifesting a national trend. Do you see a situation where Iran would disappear to the US; or could it be that Iran will walk a different path than that of the Soviet Union?

Countries evolve over time, and I have no idea what future choices Iran will make, but I suspect that most of its future evolution will be determined from inside Iran.

To read the interview at Iran's View, click here.

In order to advocate for continued regional economic cooperation in the face of a deteriorating security situation, EWI's Regional Security Initiative convened an event in Dushanbe on October 12-14, 2015. EWI's Vice President for Regional Security, Ambassador Martin Fleischer, led a delegation of senior political and business practitioners from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Turkey, who met with high-ranking Tajik government officials. 

The mission highlighted the cross-border economic progress currently being seen, while exploring opportunities for continued intra-regional success and drawing attention to potential hurdles to further growth. Also on the discussion table were the significant security challenges currently facing Afghanistan and the greater Central Asian neighborhood, and how the region can continue to foster economic growth and development in a seemingly daunting situation.

Click here to download the full report. 

Click here to view pictures from the event. 

On August 22, Colonel (Retired) Richard McEvoy, a dedicated soldier and truly great American, was killed in an Improvised Explosive Devise attack near the U.S Embassy in Kabul. My first squad leader in the Army and a fellow brigade commander at the 10th Mountain Division in Fort Drum, New York, Dick’s death caused me to reflect closely on the prospects for Afghanistan. After more than two years serving in Afghanistan as a brigade commander and chief planning officer at ISAF Joint Command, I have continued to be positive regarding the future of the country, but this incident made me question my convictions.

The EastWest Institute has sponsored the Afghanistan Reconnected Program for the last three years. The premise of the program is that in order to capitalize on the successes and progress made in Afghanistan over the last 14 years, Central and South Asian countries must work together to improve regional economic prosperity.

Our regular events involving regional business, governmental and academic leaders have centered on the opportunities associated with Afghanistan’s youthful and better-educated population, central location as a transportation hub, historic agriculture industry and potential mineral and energy sectors.

A high-ranking and dynamic group of private sector leaders and members of parliament from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Tajikistan, and other countries active in the region has identified concrete measures that can be taken to reduce border crossing procedures, improve the quality and timeliness of cross border commerce, capitalize on regional natural resource development, and streamline visa requirements, among other tangible actions that would serve to improve economic growth.

And while our team fully recognizes the challenges posed by historical mistrust, corruption, as well as an unstable security environment, it asserts that economic growth and regional stability are possible.

After successful trips to Islamabad and New Delhi, where the Afghanistan Reconnected team discussed the actions that could be taken with government and private officials including the president of Pakistan, and senior ministers in Islamabad, the EastWest Institute has been planning to carry these ideas and messages to senior leaders in Kabul.

However, Colonel (Retired) McEvoy’s death has caused EWI to seriously consider our underlying assumptions and analysis. The increase in violence in Kabul combined with Taliban advances in Helmand and Kunduz over the summer serves as another indicator of a tenuous situation. Government concerns regarding the flight of wealthy and educated Afghans are beginning to impact the growth potential of the country as a whole. President Ashraf Ghani’s unity government is only now filling all of its ministerial positions, which has slowed its internal anti-corruption reform and capacity building efforts. In addition, Ghani’s initial overtures, which had been seen as very positive in Islamabad, are not having the desired impact on bilateral cooperation with Pakistan.

The negative reports and indicators are worrisome when taken at face value but with some trepidation, I decided to accept an invitation to speak at the Sixth Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA), hosted by the Afghan Foreign Ministry.

My arrival into Kabul International Airport after a four year absence helped alleviate some of my concerns. The airport itself now supports numerous regional and international carriers, and after the opening of a new international terminal in 2008 it now allows travel to over 15 destinations, and has the capacity to host over 100 aircraft.

The roads, which had been either dirt or in dire need of repair, are now paved with newer cars filling the lanes. The once ubiquitous donkey carts are now mostly replaced by small trucks and new stores. The children were in school and the ministries functioning.

Most importantly, although the security situation has forced international organizations, Afghan government and private entities to retreat behind “Jersey Barrier” walls, commerce and trade continue to flow. Afghanistan has maintained steady economic relations in the region, increasing the country’s trade value by 7.70 percent in 2014. Pakistan is the top trade partner, which, in 2014, benefitted from a strong cross-border trade worth over $1,500 million – up from $1,087 million in 2013 (39.4 percent).

My assessment after a week in Kabul is that despite the disturbing reports and security challenges on the ground, there is an opportunity to consolidate gains in Afghanistan and continue to grow regional economic capacity.

However, various challenges remain, particularly when it comes to securing the country. The Afghan National Security Force continues to have mixed performance reviews, as reflected by the Taliban’s increased presence in the South and North combined with high-profile attacks in and around the capital and Kunduz.

Still, things are not looking as bleak and there are reasons for cautious optimism. Closer analysis of the Afghan National Security Forces indicates that although tending to become fixed to bases and therefore less effective in some areas, they have demonstrated success in offensive capability and independent coordination, and have dramatically improved their special operations capability. The police have been less successful in preventing attacks in the cities but have also proven to be competent and professional in their responses to emergencies. For example, the attack in Kabul in June, where one suicide bomber and six gunmen targeted the parliament building demonstrated police competence. After the suicide bomber detonated a car bomb outside of the compound, the six gunmen attempted to enter the parliament building where members of parliament were meeting with acting Defense Minister Masoon Stanikzai. Afghan security forces reacted quickly and managed to prevent the attackers from entering the building. Ghani personally congratulated one soldier in particular, Sergeant Esa Khan, who played a large role in the counter attack that killed all six gunmen. The Ministry of Interior Affairs has also been vocal in attributing the success of this incident to the effectiveness of police forces.

On top of this, the enemy they are fighting is more fragmented, between competing Taliban elements, ISIS, and tribal elements. This could lead to greater effectiveness as the summer fighting season closes in the coming months.

The NATO led coalition sacrificed thousands of lives and trillions of dollars in order to achieve ultimate stability in Afghanistan. The gains that have been made so far have not met the expectations of either the governments or the people. But the substantial progress that has been achieved cannot be ignored.

The improvements in education, governance, economic capacity, and security from 2001 are substantial. Basic education continues to slowly improve. With the help of the U.S. and other international donors, the Ministry of Education has been able to build more than 13,000 schools and train 186,000 teachers. These improvements are reflected in the increased enrollment of students in public universities which has grown from 7,800 in 2001 to 123,000 in 2013. Challenges with security and stability associated with the Coalition withdrawal are to be expected, but are not catastrophic. The Afghan government, with a respected leader at the helm, continues to make strides in fighting corruption and reaching out to regional neighbors to explore ways to improve economic and political cooperation.

The international community should continue to support the Unity Government, promote regional economic cooperation, assist and train Afghan security forces, and help the Afghan people maintain a positive attitude as they move toward a more stable environment with better prospects for economic security and regional stability.

To ignore Afghanistan now and pull away as we did in the 1990s in Afghanistan and in 2011 in Iraq is to surrender the security and economic gains and squander the sacrifices that have been made, thus insuring ultimate victory to factionalism and extremist voices.

To read this piece at The Diplomat, click here.

To read our report on Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014, click here.

To learn about Afghanistan Reconnected: Advocacy and Outreach Mission to Tajikistan, click here.

To find out more about James Creighton's presentation at RECCA-VI in Kabul, Afghanistan, click here.