Post-Soviet Politics Expert Dr. Robert Person presents insightful perspective at EWI’s New York Center.
As part of its Speaker Series, the EastWest Institute’s New York Center invited Robert Person, assistant professor of International Relations and Comparative Politics at the United States Military Academy and expert in post-Soviet politics, to offer an in-depth, historical perspective on the current conflict in Ukraine, on November 5, 2014
Speaking to a filled conference room and a number of dialed-in listeners, Person began by offering some historical perspective on Ukraine, providing insight into the forces fueling the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
“The challenges are immense,” Person said. “The odds are against Ukraine and Kiev. Unfortunately, I would predict we are in for a bumpy ride.”
Despite all of these seemingly insurmountable differences, he argued that the best course of action for Kiev is to rule from the center. He stressed the importance of the Ukrainian government to satisfy the needs of both Western and Eastern Ukraine, if it is to avoid a “frozen conflict,” a term popularly applied to post-Soviet conflicts used to describe the end of an active armed conflict without any substantive agreement or peace treaty.
Exploring Russia’s objective to keep Ukraine within its sphere of influence, a precedent established by Muscovy’s (a precursor to modern Russia) domain over the territories that would become Eastern Ukraine and Kiev’s significance in Slavic culture, Person helped elaborate on Moscow’s investment in the future of Crimea and other disputed eastern territories. He also offered explanations of some of the driving factors behind resistance to Putin and Russia, notably, the emergence of Ukrainian nationalism, a notion encouraged by the Vienna-based Habsburg Monarchy who saw a strong national identity in Ukraine as an important bulwark to Russian westward expansion. Ukrainian nationalism, Person explained, is a monumental aspect of both Kiev’s view of Russia as a foreign imposition and a major pillar of Ukrainian resistance to Russian control, exemplified by Ukrainian nationalist resistance to the Soviets during World War II and to Russia today in this conflict.
After giving important historical perspective, Person then took into account the significance of the myriad of cultural, social and political differences between Kiev and Eastern Ukraine, notably the vastly different educational curriculums (Kiev emphasizing concepts of Ukrainian nationalism and Eastern Ukraine leaning towards Slavic and cultural brotherhood with Russia), the impact of linguistics (Ukrainian or Russian) and the demographic make-up of Eastern territories such as Crimea. These domestic issues, as he explained, are of great importance in understanding the current conflict.
Dr. Person warned that if Kiev doesn’t reassess its strategy, which necessitates both addressing serious domestic economic and political concerns and distancing itself from both the West and Russia, it has little hope of finding a solution for this conflict. In his examination of the conflict in Ukraine, Person sees the many challenges facing Kiev and Ukraine as a prediction of a long and tedious road to peace.
“The second big task for Kiev is governing from the center. This will require someone to walk a very fine line,” Person stressed.
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DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army (DA), Department of Defense (DOD), or the U.S. Government.