Regional Security

EastWest Institute’s Vice President, Regional Security, Dr. Beate Maeder Metcalf moderated this panel, hosted by the Hanns Seidel Foundation of Germany, to engage senior members of Pakistan's Parliament (the Senate) in a dialogue with European institutions at a crucial point in time for Pakistan and the region. Dr. Maeder-Metcalf has lead EWI’s multi-year, multi-stakeholder meetings about the security and economic future of Afghanistan and the region, including Pakistan (The Abu Dhabi Process.)

The May 2013 election in Pakistan saw the first democratic handover of power in its history. Most countries in the region are scheduled to complete their electoral processes in 2014. At the same time, the drawdown of international forces from Afghanistan will be complete by the end of the year, creating uncertainty when the country also faces many challenges, such as energy shortages, sectarian and terrorist violence in the Western region, and radicalization in parts of society due to a youth bulge facing high unemployment.  

The goal of the Brussels panel was to promote mutual understanding and to advance a common agenda, as the issues in the region have implications for Europe and the rest of the world. The panel addressed Pakistan's current politics, economy, security issues, and relations with EU and NATO. 

The Pakistani delegation was led by the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Senator Adeel (Awami National Party), and by Senator Mushahid Sayed, Chairman of the Defense Committee (Pakistan Muslim League, PML-Q). The European Parliament was represented by Mr. Michael Gahler (Member of the EP's Committee on Foreign Affairs, member of EastWest Institute’s Parliamentarian’s Network). NATO was represented by Dr. Stefanie Babst, Head of Strategic Analysis Capability for the NATO Secretary General and Chairman of NATO Military Committee. 

On the political front, Pakistani participants stressed that Pakistan is a vibrant democracy, perhaps the freest Muslim democracy in the world, with an independent media and judiciary. Mr. Gahler, who led the European Parliament’s election monitoring mission to Pakistan in 2013, recognized Pakistan’s democratic achievements and emphasized the EU’s continued interest. 

Economically, to ensure a prosperous future, Pakistani participants said the country will need to invest more in education. Senator Sayed stressed that the country had the potential to become an economic hub in "Greater South Asia," including India and linking to China. 

Addressing the security transition in Afghanistan at the end of 2014, Pakistani participants expressed concern about the effects of what could be perceived as a Western "cut and run.” Dr. Babst of NATO reiterated NATO's continued security commitment to the region, and reminded participants that Pakistan still needs to sign the NATO-Pakistan "Joint Declaration," pending in Islamabad since 2013. 

The EastWest Institute’s Brussels Center convened a roundtable discussion on “Afghanistan in Transition” on June 11. EWI organized the event to assess the county’s current political and security transitions prior to the final round of presidential elections on June 14 and to launch the institute’s latest report, Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014, which focuses on the great economic opportunities and regional challenges the transition offers.

“EWI will move the Afghanistan reconnected process forward by giving a major role to the private sector in 2014 and beyond,” said EWI’s COO James Creighton.  “We will make sure that projects and recommendations mentioned in the report are endorsed by the business community and members of parliament. We will undertake regional advocacy in order to sustain the momentum we have created in 2013.”

The ambassadors of Afghanistan and Tajikistan; senior diplomats of permanent missions of foreign states to the European Union; and representatives of the European Union, science-policy research centers and non-governmental organizations attended the roundtable. Panelists, including the Economic Minister of the Pakistan Embassy Dr. Safdar A. Sohil. applauded the report and EWI’s effort to stimulate regional economic cooperation.

Ambassador of Afghanistan to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg, H.E. Mr. Homayoun Tandar, tackled the issues first, stressing that Afghanistan’s security situation has improved, and that the country offers great opportunity for investment and regional cooperation.

Tandar emphasized that the Afghan security forces are capable of ensuring security for future investment in Afghanistan’s untapped natural resources, notably gas and mining. The security provided by the Afghan security forces in the first round of elections was a good sign of their capabilities according to Ambassador Tandar.

“In a relaxed atmosphere, roughly 7 million of Afghani have cast their votes on the April 4 first round of elections; at least the same number of people took part in last Saturday’s, June 14 second round,” said Tandar. He noted, however, the challenge will be to financially support the security forces, as they will take full responsibility from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) on December 31, 2014. Tandar also stressed that the cooperation with Pakistan is crucial for regional economic development and stability.

H.E. Mr. Rustamjon Abdulloevich Soliev, ambassador of Tajikistan to Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, the European Union, NATO and UNESCO then proceeded to express the position of Tajikistan, a neighbor to Afghanistan with 1400 kilometers of common borders.

There are number of initiatives and projects where Tajikistan can help Afghanistan navigate through economic transitions. In the energy sector, Tajikistan can be a reliable energy supplier to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The CASA-1000 regional project allows Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to sell surplus hydropower to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghanistan’s infrastructures and transport systems are essential to boost its trade and to take full advantage of its key location as a landbridge between South and Central Asia.

Dr. Safdar A. Sohail, economic minister, Embassy of Pakistan to Belgium, underlined that Afghanistan’s position should allow it to become a transit road from Europe to China. No country should be excluded.  Solving common issues by dialogue is still a challenge, with zero-sum game thinking still prevailing. These roadblocks need to be overcome. It will be otherwise impossible to move common projects forward in any meaningful way.

At the conclusion of the event, a Russian delegate affirmed that the stability and security of Afghanistan is in the national interest of the Russian Federation. The delegation said that their country is ready to share the burden of participation in regional projects aimed at stabilizing Afghanistan and the countries around it. Final remarks highlighted agreements among participants on the need for trust and confidence building in order to secure foreign long-terms investments. All agreed that a tremendous potential for energy and trade is possible, but the lack of local funds and resources could hamper full economic development, both internally and regionally, with negative consequences for all players involved.

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Click here to read Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014.  

After two years of protracted deliberations in parliament, the Lower House (“Wolesi Jirga”) has finally adopted a series of new mining laws to provide a stronger legal framework for investment in Afghanistan’s mining sector. Among other provisions, the law enables corporate businesses, already investing in the exploration of Afghanistan’s natural resources, to bid for extraction. A subsequent addendum to the legislation requires 5 percent of mining revenues to be allocated for development projects in mining areas.  

The EastWest Institute welcomes the adoption of these laws as a significant achievement. The new legislation could not come at a more critical time—just a few weeks before the second round of presidential elections—as Afghanistan  prepares for a historical political transition, with potential consequences to regional security. In this time of uncertainty, EWI is about to release a new report, Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014—focusing on the country’s regional economic potential. This work has engaged leading private sector leaders, parliamentarians and governmental officials from Asia and beyond. EWI plans to launch the report officially on June 11, 2014, at the institute’s Brussels Center.

Ramazan Jumazada, MP from Afghanistan and member of EWI’s Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention, says: “We do believe this will have a very significant impact on attracting domestic and foreign investment in Afghanistan. The mining sector is a very good alternative for Afghanistan’s sustainability and will help Afghanistan to reduce its dependency on foreign aid.”

The mining sector is Afghanistan’s largest medium and long term economic asset. Official sources have estimated $1 trillion in proven mineral resources and the potential for an additional $3 trillion. 

With the withdrawal of most foreign troops by the end of 2014 and the reduction of foreign aid, Afghanistan’s economy will have to become more self-sustaining and generate sufficient state revenue. To ensure this transition, Afghanistan must increase domestic and foreign investment in key industries, such as the mining sector. Developing Afghanistan’s mineral resources—including copper, iron ore, gold, oil and natural gas—will increase the potential for prosperity and economic growth.