Other speakers included EU Ambassador to Iraq, Martin Huth; Netherlands Ambassador to Iraq, Michel Rentenaar; Middle East Institute Non-Resident Scholar, Hafsa Halawa; and MENA Special Advisor at the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, Maria Fantappie, who moderated the discussion.

Click here to watch the full webinar. Hassan’s comments occur during the time interval 35:49-45:42 and begin again at 1:09:01. Click here to read an Arabic translation of Hassan's comments. Read excerpts from his comments, below.

I will talk about one, specific dimension of the EU's Iraq strategy, namely supporting Iraq’s good relations with its neighbors. On January twenty second 2018, almost three years ago, the EU adopted a new Iraq strategy. One of the objectives of this strategy is to support regional dialogue, help Iraq to foster diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries, and encourage Iraq’s neighbors to play a constructive role, to sustain and increase their support to Iraq. Three years on, this strategic objective is more than ever relevant for Iraq and the EU, but it may need to be updated and operationalized to reflect internal, Iraqi and external, regional developments. 

Given systemic corruption and mismanagement, coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices, post-2003 Iraq is on the verge of economic collapse. Without real reforms, Iraq is on the brink of the transition from a fragile state to a failed state. This transformation, should it occur, will be disastrous for Iraq and its neighborhood, and will negatively impact the interests of the EU and its member states as it will undoubtedly unleash waves of migration in the region and towards the EU, will provide ISIS with a new lease of life, and further deteriorate regional security.

In light of these developments, the EU is uniquely well positioned to help Iraq become more independent from external actors especially Iran and the US by developing balanced, win-win political and economic relations with its neighbors. One of the key takeaways of our joint project at EastWest Institute with our partner organization CARPO entitled “Iraq and Its Neighbors,” and supported by EEAS is that across the board in Iraq and the region the EU is considered and perceived as a neutral player without a negative agenda or problematic track record. In the current polarized and fragmented middle east, this neutrality is a unique, strategic asset that assists the EU to pursue its strategic goal of fostering bilateral and regional dialogue focused on the future of Iraq as an independent state. 

In the 1980s during the Iraq Iran war, Saddam Hussein portrayed Iraq as a strategic buffer against Iran, or in Saddam’s terminology Iraq was “Albawaba Alsharqya” or the Eastern Gate [against Iran]. Since 2003, Iraq has become a strategic battleground for proxy and direct conflicts between Iran and the US. History has shown that both regional roles have proved to be disastrous for Iraq and beyond.

Therefore, there is a need for the development of a third way. The EU can help Iraq become a prosperous, positive actor, a meeting, neutral point between and for regional rivals, or what we can call a positive, strategic balancer as opposed to a strategic playground between Iran and the US, and a strategic buffer against Iran.

To translate this analytical concept into a practical policy, the EU can implement a two-prong strategy. Internally, It can engage and encourage key, powerful Iraqi players on official and unofficial levels to achieve a minimum internal consensus that should aim at supporting Iraqi government’s goal of developing balanced relations with neighboring countries in particular Iran and Saudi Arabia. Externally, the EU can engage the key Iraqi neighbors to develop balanced economic and political relations with Iraq, instead of simply seeing Iraq as a market for their products and hence correct the current imbalance trade ties with Iraq, and secondly to stop using Iraq as a theater to settle scores with their rivals.

On November 17, the EastWest Institute (EWI) and Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) hosted their eighth “Brussels MENA Briefing”—a series of after-work briefings on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region—on the recent election of Joe Biden as U.S. president-elect and the changes his administration could bring to both the United States’ own Middle East policy, as well as its transatlantic relations with the European Union (EU) vis-à-vis the Middle East. 

Speakers included Cameron Munter, former U.S. ambassador and former president of the EastWest Institute, and James Moran, associate senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS). The discussion was moderated by Wael Abdul-Shafi, EWI MENA program associate. 

Biden’s election was received with a huge sigh of relief by the international community, including in Europe. The speakers stated that a Biden administration will likely make efforts to re-establish relations with traditional allies, while rebuilding the damage done under Trump’s “America First” policy. 

As the experts noted, Biden’s strategy in the Middle East will probably be restorative rather than innovative. Preoccupation with national issues, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an unwillingness by the American public to support strong military interventions in the Middle East, will most probably lead to a decreased role abroad for the U.S. military. Instead, Biden will likely emphasize his support for a multilateral approach to the region, one speaker suggested. It is therefore expected that one of his priorities will be reinstalling the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Although, as pointed to by one speaker, the question of Iran’s willingness to rejoin remains to be seen.  

The speakers mentioned that the most daunting challenge facing Biden’s administration is to reevaluate and determine U.S. foreign policy towards Israel and Turkey. Although the discussants elaborated that while Israel will remain a strong ally of the U.S., Biden will also be willing to deal with the UAE and Bahrain—likely giving more attention to the Palestinian case, for example, by reviving U.S. aid to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Considering Turkey, both speakers foresee the need for a delicate balancing act and close coordination between the EU and the U.S., as Turkey plays an important role in the EU’s migration policy, and the Eastern Mediterranean crises remains unresolved.

During the briefing, Biden was also predicted to take on a tougher stance towards specific Gulf countries, emphasizing a concern for the protection of human rights and democracy. This focus would also affect Egypt, one of the experts explained, where President Sisi could be encouraged to give more space to civil society. One speaker suggested that the U.S. might be able to play an important role in Yemen, where, by working together with the EU within the context of the UN-led peace efforts, it could achieve some sort of breakthrough without upsetting other major players on the international scene, such as Russia. 

Although the Biden administration was received with much optimism in the EU, a word of caution is in order according to one discussant, as a democratic administration will need some time to develop and move ahead with its initiatives. Therefore, it is important for the EU to develop a degree of strategic autonomy. One speaker added that the U.S. will need to adapt to a European continent that has changed. With Britain having left the EU, the U.S. can no longer rely on its traditional ally. Rather, it will need to invest in relations with member states such as France and Germany, who have their own views on the Middle East. 

That being said, the EU will see some familiar faces in the new administration from the Obama presidency. The two speakers concluded on a hopeful note, stating that this offers the possibility of fruitful cooperation in the Middle East in the four years to come. 

About the Brussels MENA Briefings

The Brussels MENA Briefings are in-depth round-table discussions on topics of current significance in the MENA region hosted by EWI and CARPO bimonthly, the first week of every second month. As in-person-briefings are impossible due to COVID-19, EWI and CARPO have temporarily turned this series into a monthly webinar. Please note that attendance is by invitation only.

Should you be interested in being considered for the invitation list, kindly send an email to Desirée Custers mentioning your name, affiliation and geographical or thematic area of interest and expertise in the Middle East.

Dates for upcoming Brussels MENA Briefings:

Tuesday, December 1, 2020: Kuwait

Event Reports from Previous Briefings:

The Economic Dimension of the Conflict in Yemen 

Jordanian Foreign Policy in Light of Regional Geopolitical Shifts

How to Rescue Sudan’s Transition Process?

A New Iraqi Government in Place: Challenges and Opportunities for Iraq in its Neighborhood

The Status Quo of the Libyan Conflict: Is the Berlin Process Obsolete? 

Post-Sultan Qaboos Oman: Transition Opportunities and Challenges

Iran After Parliamentary Elections

On November 12, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) and the EastWest Institute (EWI) launched an exclusive Joint Working Group (JWG) series on EU’s water diplomacy with respect to three key water-stressed regions: the Himalayas, Central Asia and the Euphrates-Tigris. The aim of this series is to set the stage for KAS and EWI’s conference next year on “International Hydrodiplomacy—Building and Strengthening Regional Institutions for Water Conflict Prevention.”

The inaugural session on November 12 was devoted to the Himalayan region—home to 1.9 billion people and the “water tower of Asia,” from which flows the majority of the continent’s great rivers, including the Indus, Ganges and Tsangpo-Brahmaputra. The session brought together regional water experts along with representatives from the European External Action Service (EEAS), Slovenian Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Slovenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands, to jointly assess the current challenges to Himalayan transboundary water governance and reflect upon EU’s role as a potential synergistic force in advancing greater intra-and inter-regional cooperation on water issues.

Participants highlighted that water governance in the region has traditionally employed a reductionist approach—limiting the scope for greater multi-stakeholder engagement and inclusive decision-making. Following this approach, policymakers have failed to efficaciously address the needs of the region’s diverse ecosystem, navigate the manifold effects of climate change and contract the existing knowledge gaps, which, in turn, constrain prospects for regional water cooperation. To further exacerbate matters, frequent political tensions between neighboring countries result in water being transformed into a national security issue.

Reflecting on China’s role in the region’s hydrodiplomacy, participants agreed that China’s position as an upper riparian allows it extensive leverage over the Himalayan waters. In recent years, China’s dam-building and water-diversion projects, coupled with an apparent reservation in sharing hydrological data, have all been a major cause of concern for its downstream neighbors.

The participants further emphasized that conventional Track 1 mechanisms have failed to deliver on water cooperation ambitions in the region. Instead, the region’s shared waterscape requires a proactive deliberation towards adopting a more multi-disciplinary approach—one which binds together inclusive hydrodiplomacy initiatives, institutional frameworks, resource abutment and greater ecological integration in the region. The discussion also allowed for an intellectual discourse on how the EU could play a greater role in facilitating a more cooperative and coordinated enterprise towards shared water governance in the region. Participants agreed that the EU has the potential to act as an important third-party solicitor by bringing forward its constructive experience in transboundary water management and empowering integrative approaches towards water research and governance on various scales.

Hydrodiplomacy in the Himalayan region lacks the required impetus and cooperative incentives that are needed to ensure a better water future. There is an urgent need to periodically convene relevant regional and international stakeholders vis-à-vis a joint institutional platform, along the lines of River Basin Organizations (RBOs), in order to curate effective management methods and devise viable long-term solutions to tackle the looming threat of water scarcity and subsequent economic pressures in the region.

In the future, EWI and KAS will continue to mobilize and engage experts and stakeholders from key water-stressed regions, like the Himalayas, in an effort to address the global water challenges against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving security and environmental context.

Click here to view the JWG agenda.

Click here to listen to the interview in Kurdish. Click here to read an Arabic translation of the remarks. Read an English translation of the remarks, below. 

While Joe Biden won the election, we should not forget that over 70 million Americans voted for Trump. President Trump also enjoys support in Europe, especially among far-right parties and people anxious about identity loss due to migration. Luckily, the pro-Biden groups in Europe are bigger than those who support Trump. Therefore, "Trumpism" is not only an American phenomenon, but rather a global one. 

The world—not only the U.S.—is in a deep identity and economic crisis. The root causes of this social and political transformation are complex and complicated. While globalization led to unprecedented technological development and generated social mobility, it also created and increased economic inequalities. In particular, less educated populations in the U.S., and for that matter, in Europe and around the world, have seen their wages decrease, some even lost their jobs, perhaps for good.

The Trump presidency has undermined American [and Western liberal] democracy. Authoritarian leaders in China, Russia and elsewhere are delighted about the current, structural crisis of liberal democracy—they tell their people and others, look at the "decay of democracy" in the West, our political system is better than democracy.  

The problem is that not only does Donald Trump not recognize the election results, but that his supporters firmly believe the elections were rigged, despite the fact that they cannot present any proof to substantiate their claim. The fear of an eruption of violence is valid, but American institutions such as the judiciary and election monitoring, are strong and I think in the end, the U.S. will pass this crisis and power will be transferred to Biden. The election of Trump in 2016 and the fact that over 70 million Americans voted for him in 2020 offers a lesson for the entire world. To understand Trumpism [and produce an alternative political vision and economic model], we need to understand the root causes that led to its emergence and expansion in the first place.

On November 10, the EastWest Institute (EWI), together with its partners at the German Chambers of Commerce in Algiers and Casablanca, held a webinar entitled “The Health and Care Industry: Challenges and Opportunities”— the fourth in a series of virtual meetings as part of EWI’s ongoing Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue. The webinar brought together seven business leaders, three Algerian and four Moroccan, to take part in a cross-border business dialogue aiming to promote greater economic connectivity between the two countries in the healthcare sector. 

The Healthcare Sector

From an outside perspective, the respective healthcare industries in Algeria and Morocco present an attractive investment opportunity. As the two largest populations in the Maghreb region, both countries offer large markets with little competition. According to the latest figures of the Observatory of Economic Complexity (2018), Algeria’s pharmaceutical exports totaled just 6.4 million USD while it imported a whopping 1.77 billion USD. Although nowhere near as stark a difference, Morocco’s trade in pharmaceuticals is similarly heavily imbalanced towards imports with the country importing 662 million USD of products and exporting only 110 million USD. However, despite these vast opportunities for large players in the healthcare industry, the two countries offer completely different experiences in terms of breaking into the market. 

Despite 4.3 billion USD of public spending per year and serving as a unique example of universal healthcare in North Africa, the Algerian system is regularly described as defunct and distinctly lacking in proper medical equipment. A major underlying issue is the numerous bureaucratic, registration and international certification hurdles outside investors must navigate in order to get a foothold in the country. Nevertheless, despite these difficulties, Algeria is growing in relevance for large international private sector players as the government diversifies its economy, which many believe will lead to the inevitable opening of the country to international markets. Morocco, on the other hand, is often described as a much more open and friendly environment to do business, boasting a growing middle class and lower international certification requirements. 

The attractiveness of each country’s respective health care sector has yet to register with governmental officials on either side of the border. Only 1.2 million USD of Morocco’s total pharmaceutical exports made it across the border, accounting for just 0.068 percent of Algeria's total imports in this commodity. Unfortunately, these paltry figures are of little surprise within the context of Algeria-Moroccan trade relations given they echo the same story of missed opportunities across multiple sectors. 

Local Experience and Solutions

Webinar participants came from a variety of businesses across the healthcare sector. From representatives of medical and laboratory equipment manufacturers to pharmaceutical, cosmetic and food supplement producers, the participants represented a wide variety of interests across the entire scope of the industry. Yet, despite their distinct areas of focus, all participants shared frustration at their inability to conduct trade with their counterparts in the neighboring country. However, it was noted that this is certainly not due to a lack of trying. Representatives from businesses on both sides of the border confirmed their willingness to find partners and markets in Algeria and Morocco but testified to their experience of either running into bureaucratic difficulties, facing open discouragement, or in the case of one participant, discounting cross partnership as a viable option.

One of the more structural problems to bilateral trade in this sector is the lack of trust in the capacity and brand of the other country. This has been one of the overarching themes of the entire project to date, with participants across multiple sectors affirming that products from outside the region, such as Europe, are generally more trusted and better received than those originating from the region. The preference for European-made products discourages Algerian or Moroccan businesses from trying to enter the market across the border, since this general attitude among consumers makes it immensely difficult to market products effectively. 

Recommendations 

Made in Maghreb: To address the lack of confidence in locally made products, businesses in the region need to foster an environment where the local market is more forthcoming towards products emanating from the Maghreb. One possible solution could be joint business ventures with the stages of manufacturing taking place on either side of the border. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, this idea also offers a means to reduce reliance on large supply chains from places like China.

Knowledge Platform: The German-Algerian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AHK) has already launched an internet platform for Algerian and Tunisian businesses to share information and best practices, but this should be extended to Morocco. This platform would serve as a viable means for business leaders to establish partnerships with their counterparts and identify means to navigate bureaucratic obstacles on either side of the border. 

Joint Risk Management: To date, the COVID-19 pandemic has not ushered a fresh impetus in either capital to cooperate with their respective neighbor in overcoming shared issues; this is despite the fact both countries are two of the worst hit on the African continent. Businesses from multiple industries in both countries have lost markets as a result of the ongoing situation. Nevertheless, the pandemic offers an opportunity for companies to integrate different elements of their crisis management, so they may come out of the other side of future health crises in a healthier and more stable position. 

Training and scientific webinars: Given the economic complementarity between the two countries, knowledge and expertise exchanges offer an immediate and practical means for cooperation. In addition, considering the current lack of interaction between the business communities in Algeria and Morocco, developing education services offers a more viable starting point for the potential development of Maghrebi products in the future. 

Continue the process: Participants to the webinar attested to the importance of holding future meetings and continuing the current process. The lack of opportunities for Algerian and Moroccan business leaders to meet and discuss ideas only highlights the necessity for EWI to continue to establish channels of communication for future trade relations. Developing more sub-sector specific webinars offers a legitimate means to continue and build upon the achievements of the initiative. Regarding the healthcare sector, this could take the form of a series of webinars concerning the pharmaceutical or medical equipment manufacturing industries 

About the Algeria Morocco Business Dialogue

Despite its vast potential, the Maghreb region is often cited as being one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. The Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue project seeks to bring together Algerian and Moroccan business leaders from multiple business sectors with the aim of overcoming obstacles to bilateral trade between the two neighbors.

The dialogues center on topics vital to successful entrepreneurship in Algeria and Morocco such as food security, agriculture, healthcare, the impact of digitalization and new technologies and energy—with a particular focus on how to attract quality investment, ensure environmental protection and empower businesswomen.

COVID-19 has unfortunately had a detrimental effect on the overall operation and schedule of the project. Each meeting was envisioned as a two-day conference such as the first event on the agricultural industry, which took place as a two-day delegation to Berlin to attend the city’s Green Week—one of the world’s largest international agriculture trade affairs. Nevertheless, EWI has moved the project online in order to maintain the good momentum of the project generated in Berlin. Although this means the discussions between participants are less interactive, they proved no less intensive nor productive as the following policy recommendations attest.

Click here to read a French translation of this event report. 

Click here to read an Arabic translation of this event report.

Links to Reports of Previous Briefings:

Cooperation in the Automobile Industry

Women’s Empowerment and Entrepreneurship: Challenges and Opportunities

The Agricultural and Food Manufacturing Sector

Participants explored challenges and opportunities for building an inclusive, secure, safe and resilient cyberspace in the Southern African region around three pillars critical to stability and growth in the digital realm: sustainable development, peace and security and governance. The meeting featured speaker contributions on the three pillars and included opportunities for exchange with representatives from governments, businesses, civil society organizations and universities from Southern Africa and beyond. In total, over 70 attendees from twelve Southern African countries and nine countries outside the region participated in the dialogue. A video of the speaker presentations can be found here, and a summary of the meeting can be found here.

This event reflects the commitment of the governments of South Africa and the Netherlands to support regional cooperation in Southern Africa on cybersecurity, and is intended to serve as a precursor to a more comprehensive in-person conference to be held in South Africa in 2021. The dialogue is also part of a Global Dialogue Series being undertaken by the EastWest Institute, which aims to convene regional meetings to address capacity building around key cyber challenges and complement ongoing international cyber norms processes. The first meeting in this series took place in August 2020 and was focused on the Southeast Asia region.

The meeting kicks off a year-long, Track 2 dialogue series, aimed at exploring avenues for military-to-military cooperation between the United States and Russia on urgent security and strategic issues.

American participants included General (ret.) George W. Casey, General (ret.) Curtis M. Scaparrotti and Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberry. Russian participants included Lieutenant General (ret.) Evgeny P. Buzhinsky, Colonel General (ret.) Viktor Yesin and Major General (ret.) Pavel Zolotarev.

As U.S.-Russia relations continue to deteriorate, the meeting afforded participants a timely opportunity to exchange perspectives on the major geopolitical obstacles hampering bilateral military-to-military cooperation, as well as assess issues of mutual concern and interest, including arms control, nuclear non-proliferation and emerging technologies.

Participants agreed that the current state of U.S.-Russia relations is characterized by tension, competition and higher levels of unpredictability and mistrust; however, as compared to the Cold War period, communication and interaction between both militaries is at an all-time low. Discussions underscored that this vacuum in communication poses significant risks, and there remains a greater need for dialogue between Russia and the United States in order to avoid miscalculation and misunderstanding, which can escalate into conflict. 

Co-moderated by Bruce McConnell, EWI president, and Vladimir Ivanov, director of EWI’s Russia program, the meeting also allowed participants to share their respective experiences working with American and Russian colleagues throughout their distinguished careers.

Future meetings of the U.S.-Russia Military-to-Military Dialogue will be organized for later this year and next year.

The dialogue was made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Click here to watch the interview in Arabic. Read an English translation of his remarks, below.

Iraqi leaders, like the rest of the world, are watching the election results very closely. As a matter of fact, the world and Iraq are holding their breath as to who will win this existential election. Iraq was not a primary topic of discussion during the election campaign, and likely will not be a foreign policy priority regardless of who will be the next U.S. president—American policymakers are sick and tired of Iraqi political elites, who are accused of systemic corruption [by the Iraqi people] and lacking the political will needed to implement reforms. Incidentally, the U.S. helped the current Iraqi political class to come to power after overthrowing Saddam Hussein in 2003.

If Biden wins the election, his administration will be preoccupied with daunting internal challenges such as addressing the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, other strategic issues, dealing with the long-term impact of "Trumpism" and a deeply and dangerously polarized American society. So, Iraq will not be on the top list of Biden’s foreign policy. But Biden will continue to support Iraq in its war against ISIS and may deconflict the situation with Iran.

If Trump wins the election, we will see a continuation and even intensification of the so-called “maximum pressure” strategy and sanctions against Iran. This may lead to further conflicts between Iran and the U.S. and Iraq may well be the battleground for this war, which, in turn, will further destabilize the fragile security in Iraq. 

However, Iraq may again gain strategic importance for the U.S. should we see dramatic changes that affect American interests in the region, such as a strong ISIS resurgence or intensified conflict with Iran.