On January 27, 2021 the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) and the EastWest Institute (EWI) held the second iteration of their exclusive Joint Working Group (JWG) series—launched last year—on EU’s water diplomacy with respect to the three most water-stressed regions in the world: the Himalayas, Central Asia and the Euphrates-Tigris. The second convening of the JWG was devoted to Central Asia, a region known for its broad and capacious transboundary river systems shared by the upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the downstream countries, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

The session brought together water experts from Central Asia along with representatives of the EU, GIZ, academia and international think tanks to jointly assess the current challenges which impede effective implementation of equitable allocation of water resources in Central Asia. The discussion commenced with an overview of the transboundary river networks in Central Asia—spotlight on the Aral Sea basin that is fed by two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. In the 1960s, the Soviet government decided to divert the river waters to meet the irrigation demands for agriculture. The experts noted that this contributed to what came to be known as the “Aral Sea Catastrophe”—a crisis driven by the multifold effects of rising population, rapid irrigation and deteriorating water infrastructures which ultimately led to the desiccation of the Aral Sea.

Within the overview, the experts drew attention to the point that even though Central Asia’s water challenges started under Soviet rule, the water crisis further intensified in the post-Soviet set up as independent countries in the region were left overwhelmed with technical, managerial and cross-border issues on water governance. In this context, the experts emphasized that most water issues in the region are not rooted in the resource itself but often in the political situations surrounding them. Hence, a lot of shared water challenges are in fact a result of an overall lack of good governance in the region.

Central Asia’s water diplomacy and Institutional Achievements

Albeit the existing concerns, there have been notable positive developments in the region over the past decades. In fact, in 1992 the ministers of the five dominant Central Asian countries established the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination in Central Asia (ICWC) with various executive bodies. The ICWC facilitated the introduction of integrated water resources management for the benefit of the entire region—a step in the right direction.

Moreover, one discussant pointed out that the ability of Central Asian countries to come together in times of crisis should not be underestimated. There are strong informal foundations in form of “brotherhoods” and technical expert networks among riparian countries which could be further strengthened. Such initiatives might contribute to an enhanced cooperation on shared waters without compromising or weakening existing formal institutions like the ICWC and IFAS.

Challenges and the way forward

Nevertheless, a range of challenges remain in Central Asia’s water diplomacy. For example, research gaps and lack of efficient coordination still prevent the region’s water commissions from reaching their full potential. Also, there is an increasing risk of bilateralism in the region’s water diplomacy vis-à-vis the use of new bilateral institutions for forum shopping, especially among upstream states circumventing stricter rules.

On Afghanistan, the experts emphasized the need for integrating the country into the formal conversations on transboundary water governance in Central Asia, particularly against the backdrop of the aforementioned trend of bilateralism. So far Afghanistan, a key upstream country, where vast parts of the population depend on water-intensive agriculture, is unfortunately yet to be a part of the formal Central Asian water platforms. It was highlighted that the countries must find a balance between promoting cooperation at basin and sub-basin level while maintaining formal standards and protocols.

Finally, reflecting on the EU’s role in the region, the experts identified various initiatives that the EU has taken in the past, some of which are ongoing, that have played an important role in broadening the conversation on transboundary water issues (e.g. the EU–CA Platform on Environment and Water and Germany’s Green Central Asia Initiative). However, there is still scope for greater involvement by the EU which can be achieved via promotion of advanced research and innovation on water management needs; improved coordination among donors to synchronize project planning; and stronger consistency of the EU’s engagement, in particular from the vantage of Afghanistan where the Union has regressed its capacity-development support for transboundary water management. Participants agreed that the EU has the required potential to further its position as an important third-party solicitor and empower integrative approaches towards water research and governance on various scales.

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Program

INTERNATIONAL HYDRODIPLOMACY

VIRTUAL JOINT WORKING GROUP MEETING SERIES IN FOCUS: CENTRAL ASIA

Set against the backdrop of transboundary water resource politics, the EastWest Institute (EWI) and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s (KAS) upcoming Joint Working Group (JWG) meeting - second iteration in a series - aims to incorporate diverse perspectives and maximize opportunities for greater understanding of the past, present and future of hydrodiplomacy in Central Asia. The JWG will assess the successes and failures of transboundary cooperation initiatives and existing institutional mechanisms, reflect upon the position of Afghanistan in regional hydrodiplomacy, and address how growing water scarcity and power asymmetries may compromise future water cooperation ambitions in the region. The discussion will also invite a strategic reflection of EU water diplomacy and its engagement in Central Asia. The JWG participants will together engender an insight into key areas where the EU can play a pivotal role in enabling an effective and cohesive system of transboundary water resource governance in the region.

PROGRAMME AGENDA - January 27, 2021 @ 2 PM CET

14:00 - 14:05       Introductions and Opening Remarks

Louis Mourier, Programme Manager, Multinational Development Policy Dialogue, KAS  
Farwa Aamer, Director, South Asia Program, EWI

14:05 - 14:15       An Overview of the Transboundary Rivers and Institutions in Centra Asia

Remarks by:

Dr. Jenniver Sehring, Senior Lecturer in Water Governance and Diplomacy, IHE Delft  
Dr. Dinara Ziganshina, Deputy Director, Scientific Information Center of Interstate Сommission for Water Coordination in Сentral Asia

14:15 - 14:25       Reactions by Participants

14:25 - 15:20       Open Discussion

15:20 - 15:30      Conclusions and Closing Remarks

PARTICIPANTS LIST

● Dr. Jenniver Sehring, Senior Lecturer in Water Governance and Diplomacy, IHE Delft  

● Dr. Dinara Ziganshina, Deputy Director, Scientific Information Center of Interstate Сommission for Water Coordination in Сentral Asia

● Ms. Carmen Marques-Ruiz, Policy Coordinator for Water/Environment, European External Action Service

● Mr. Arnaud de Vanssay, Team Leader Water, european Commission

● Ms. Tanja Miskova, Water Diplomacy Policy Officer, Slovenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

● Ms. Ana Novak, Development Policy Officer, Permanent Representation of Slovenia to the EU

● Ms. Ales Bizjak, Water Policy Officer, Slovenian Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning

● Ms. Martina Schmidt, Political Advisor to the EU's Special Representative to Central Asia, European External Action Service

● Dr. Caroline Milow, Progamme Manager, Green Central Asia, GIZ

● Dr. Susanne Schmeier, Associate Professor in Water Law and Diplomacy, IHE Delft

● Mr. Denis Schrey, Director, Multinational Development Policy Dialogue, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

● Ms. Farwa Aamer, Director, South Asia Program, EastWest Institute

● Mr. Louis Mourier, Programme Manager, Multinational Development Policy Dialogue, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

● Mr. Brian Eyler, Program Director, Energy, Water, Sustainability Program, The Stimson Center

● Ms. Courtney Weatherby, Research Analyst, Energy, Water, & Sustainability Program, The Stimson Center

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Click here to read the event report on the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung website.

On December 7, the EastWest Institute (EWI) conducted a webinar on "International Organizations and Conflict Resolution in the Time of COVID-19." The webinar featured distinguished speakers Hon. Izumi Nakamitsu, under-secretary-general and high representative for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations, and Ambassador Tuula Yrjölä, officer-in-charge/deputy head of the Secretariat and director of the Conflict Prevention Centre. 

The webinar was moderated by Bruce McConnell, EWI president and CEO Discussants included Dr. Mark Meirowitz, professor of humanities at SUNY Maritime College in New York and EWI senior fellow, and Nvard Chalikyan, consultant for EWI’s Russia and the United States program.

The panelists discussed how COVID-19 impacts  the operations of conflict resolution organizations, particularly in their ability to execute their missions within the constraints of a digital work environment. 

Hon. Izumi Nakamitsu said that COVID-19 is having a devastating effect on all aspects of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, especially on security and development, as it has accelerated many existing security threats. As states have increased their military spending, with emerging weapon technologies coming into play, this has added to the intensity of armed conflicts. Pandemic-related processes have also exacerbated the existing strain on the global disarmament and arms control regime. All these are challenges that the UN and other international organizations are struggling to deal with. 

Looking ahead, Nakamitsu said that the coming decade will be crucial to the international community, noting  that to achieve better outcomes, there must be renewed ambition, leadership and collective efforts that people at the centre of global responses. "Such times of pressing emergency and widespread turmoil represent a crucial opportunity to propose bolder approaches to conflict prevention," she noted. 

Nakamitsu also stressed the importance of concerted multilateral efforts in mobilizing government and private sector actors around development and implementation of norms of behavior, citing the example of EWI’s Global Cooperation in Cyberspace program. 

Ambassador Tuula Yrjölä said that COVID-19 has had an unprecedented effect on multilateralism and conflict resolution efforts in general, and in particular, on the security operations of the OSCE in the regions they cover—Ukraine, Transnistria, Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh. 

While the OSCE has adapted its work to the current circumstances by moving its main activities online, many functions of the organization have been hampered. At the same time, the pandemic has accelerated the need to find technological tools to support conflict resolution mechanisms. Despite the UN call for a global ceasefire, the pandemic has given rise to political and military threat perceptions in the OSCE and to the revival of frozen conflicts, exemplified in the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

"The impact [of the pandemic] could exacerbate further by an economic crisis that can affect all states in the region as well as globally," concluded Yrjölä, stressing the need for more resources to be allocated to conflict resolution organizations. 

Discussant Nvard Chalikyan presented recent research by the EastWest Institute on the impact COVID-19 has had on global security and the work of Track 2 organizations. The pandemic has resulted in the emergence of new conflicts and the resergence of old security threats, including a rise in terrorism and radicalization, escalation of the nuclear  arms race, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and a lack of implementation of arms control regimes, among others. This has generated a greater need for the work of international organizations involved in Track 2 conflict resolution. "Speaking in economic terms, the demand for conflict resolution is higher than the supply, so we need to think of ways to increase the supply," she noted. 

Chalikyan also reflected on the case of the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh—when Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, seized a majority  of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by force, breaching international law. Despite  well-documented attacks on the civilian population and the use of prohibited weapons,  there was no interference by the international community. The case raises questions about the capacity of international conflict resolution organizations to prevent or stop wars, especially during a pandemic. 

Dr. Mark Meirowitz spoke about the lessons learned from the pandemic. He noted that the world is in conflict because of the competition between the great powers, which continue to play a crucial role in various conflicts without interference or accountability from multilateral organizations, such as the UN.

He also raised whether after the pandemic, the world of international relations will go back to “business as usual” or will be obliged to come up with new processes. "Maybe the UN system is not amenable to the world as we see it today; maybe there needs to be a reset of the UN and how it functions," he noted.

Meirowitz believes that the Biden administration will be helpful in overcoming the crisis of multilateralism, as it will be less critical of the UN and international organizations. While during the pandemic the states have been looking inward, he thinks the world will be needing more multilateral engagement and Track 2 activities.

During the Q&A session, several webinar participants asked why the COVID-19 pandemic has had a more dividing effect, rather than bringing the international community together. Other participants posed the question as to whether Track 2 diplomacy would ever be conducted as it was before the COVID pandemic. 

Commenting on this, Ambassador Yrjölä said that it is largely up to the participating states to recognize the value of multilateralism and get out of this crisis. She also thinks that international organizations working on conflict resolution will most likely have more blended work formats going forward. Nakamitsu said that the pandemic has exacerbated these problems and challenges, and it has created a greater need for the revival of multilateralism.

Click here to watch the full webinar on YouTube.

During early discussions about creating the School of Languages, Cultures and World Affairs (LCWA) at the College of Charleston, one of the key initiators, local entrepreneur Hilton Smith, tapped the expertise of his friend, John Edwin Mroz, founder of the EastWest Institute, to play a leading role in the creation of the new school and its global focus.

With the help of Mroz’s international vision, LCWA opened its doors in 2006. Now Mroz will be honored as the namesake of the new John Edwin Mroz Global Leadership Institute (Mroz Institute) housed within LCWA. The EastWest Institute’s Board of Directors has committed more than $2 million to form the Mroz Institute in partnership with the College to preserve the legacy of the EastWest Institute’s (EWI) visionary founder and leader. In addition, long-time EWI supporters, the late Marshall and Arlene Bennett, have committed nearly $500,000 through the Bennett Family Foundation to support the newly formed Mroz Institute and its director.

Founded by Mroz in 1980, EWI operated as an independent, global organization that promoted peace by facilitating candid discourse among world leaders to solve sustainable solutions for major political, economic and security issues. Mroz served as president and CEO of the institute for 34 years until his death in 2014.

EWI’s storied record of backchannel or “Track II” diplomacy and dialogue came to the forefront during the Cold War. The institute’s initial success included hosting the first-ever military-to-military dialogue between NATO and Warsaw Pact countries. From these roots as a European-American initiative to bridge the divisions between Europe and Eurasia, Mroz built EWI into one of the world’s preeminent non-governmental institutions.

“For 40 years, EWI has been recognized around the world as an independent, trusted adviser driving meaningful dialogue and building trust between global leaders,” reflects EWI Chairman of the Board Ross Perot Jr.

Now EWI is transitioning its programs to other entities, including to the College where LCWA will ensure that the spirit of Mroz and the mission of EWI endure for generations to come.

“John played a key role in developing, with others at the College, the idea of a school that would focus on world affairs, realizing that a key to problem solving on the global level was also understanding various cultures and languages,” says Karen Linehan Mroz, EWI board member and wife of EWI’s late founder. “He believed it critically important to teach future generations of leaders and problem solvers to serve at the global level. When it came time to find a home for John’s and EWI’s legacy, the College and LCWA offered a natural partnership. Of great importance will be both the engagement and further development of the global EWI alumni family of experts and luminaries to engage in the education process.”

As part of the Mroz Institute, the College is creating a permanent repository for materials documenting EWI’s four decades of international diplomacy. The records and materials — including oral histories from EWI’s alumni network of policymakers, donors, board members and staff — will be available to students and scholars.

In addition, the institute will provide students the opportunity to develop high-level international skills necessary for lifelong careers of global impact. The institute will also promote the legacy and values of EWI and Mroz, educating new generations in the methods and benefits of Track II diplomacy. It will also sponsor research and scholarship on the history of Track II diplomacy with a special focus on EWI’s history and will maintain EWI’s global network of influence.

“The College is a good home for the EWI legacy,” says Jonathan F. Fanton, eminent nonprofit leader and former president of The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. “The Mroz Institute will train a new generation of leaders in the art of Track II diplomacy, and it will bring together scholars and practitioners to document past, present and future Track II dialogues that prevent and limit dangerous conflicts.”

The formation of the Mroz Institute will position LCWA and the College as a hub where students prepare for careers and leadership roles in our globally connected world.

“We are so excited to partner with the EastWest Institute to establish the Mroz Global Leadership Institute, the EWI Distinguished Visiting Fellows Program and the EWI History Project,” says College of Charleston President Andrew T. Hsu. “This great partnership will allow for significant expansion of the College’s international education and experiential learning opportunities for all students on campus. The Mroz Institute also creates an area of academic distinction for the College, a key component of our institution’s new 10-year strategic plan, Tradition & Transformation, with the overall goal of making the College of Charleston a transformative national university redefining liberal arts education through innovation.”

Click here to read the release on the College of Charleson's news website, The College Today. 

Hassan was quoted in an El País article on January 2 entitled, "El desenlace por escribir de la Primavera Árabe."

Hassan’s paraphrased remarks (translated from Spanish to English), appear below: 

In historic terms, ten years is not a sufficient time frame to judge the impacts of transformative processes like the "Dignity Revolutions," wrongly referred to as the "Arab Spring." Seasonal analogies, including "Arab Spring" and "Arab Winter or Autumn," are attractive and "sexy" from a marketing point of view but terribly miss the mark and hence, are misleading. That is why I prefer to call these uprisings "Dignity Revolutions"—millions of people from various backgrounds took to the streets demanding social justice and dignified citizenship. Though most of these protest movements have been brutally suppressed, they will likely return, perhaps bringing even more violence, since the root causes that produced them have worsened over the course of the past ten years. What is abundantly clear is that there will be no going back to a pre-2011 political order.   

It is unclear where the region is heading in the next ten years. The existing political order has proved to be resilient. The deeply corrupt and authoritarian leaders are ready to implement the strategy of scorched-earth and therefore, fight to the death to stay in power. Societies, too, have shown signs of resilience. Ten years on, the protesters are caught between authoritarian states, kleptocratic ruling elites and apocalyptic, authoritarian non-state actors, such as ISIS. Yet, the fear factor has fallen and as a result, no regime in the region—no matter how brutal—can take the status quo for granted. Unexpected, recent mass demonstrations in Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon and Sudan show that these societies are ready to protest and confront resilient authoritarianism.

Click here to read the full article on El País (in Spanish).

On December 16, the EastWest Institute (EWI), together with its partners at the German Chambers of Commerce in Algiers and Casablanca (AHKs), held a webinar entitled “The Renewable Energy Sector: Challenges and Opportunities for Cooperation”—the concluding event in a series of virtual meetings that have formed the backbone of EWI’s Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue. The webinar brought together five business leaders, three Algerian and two Moroccan, to take part in a cross-border business dialogue aiming to promote greater economic connectivity between the two countries in the renewable energy sector.

The Renewable Energy Sector 

The energy sector is one of the few industries where Algeria and Morocco enjoy some degree of economic cooperation. According to the latest figures of the Observatory of Economic Complexity (2018), almost 90 percent (approximately 622 million USD) of Algeria’s total exports to Morocco came in the form of petroleum gas and refined petroleum. Despite these numbers being a vast improvement in comparison with trade in other sectors between the two countries, these figures remain dwarfed by the sums both Algeria and Morocco trade with third parties in Europe and beyond. 

The renewable energy sector, however, represents a more sustainable and environmentally friendly means for both countries to pursue new avenues of economic cooperation, both with one another and in their respective trade relations beyond the Maghreb, particularly towards Europe. Unlike other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, Morocco is a net importer of energy, relying on imports for almost 90 percent of its energy needs. Algeria, on the other hand, desperately needs to identify more sustainable means to wean itself off oil and gas exports and diversify its economy. 

Governments in Algiers and Rabat have proposed ambitious plans to harness green energy, which they share across several sources: wind, solar, hydro and geothermal. Yet, there remain significant divergences in their respective accomplishments in this regard with Algeria failing to meet its self-imposed targets to harness wind energy and Morocco beginning to gain international recognition for its commitment to source 52 percent of its electricity needs from renewable energies.

Local Experience

Webinar participants provided astute insights as to the situation on the ground in Algeria and Morocco in terms of successes and failures when it came to their own and government initiatives in renewable energies and energy consumption. A common problem shared by entrepreneurs in the sector on either side of the border is the inability to connect their products to the national electricity grid. 

According to participants, some solar energy in the region is connected to the national grids, however, there remains a lot of room for improvement given the potential in the market and the necessity to become less reliant on non-renewables sources of energy. Currently, participant initiatives include the installation of solar pumping systems for farmers who often experience issues with power shortages, while others provide electricity to individuals in isolated areas. However, the inability to connect to the national grids means entrepreneurs are unable to transfer surplus energy reserves. 

Nevertheless, despite these challenges, participants pointed out the complementarity between Algeria and Morocco in terms of knowledge and expertise and proceeded to highlight several means by which they could exchange competencies. Algeria could learn from Morocco’s proficiency in financial access and institutionalization given the lack of cooperation amongst several ministries in Algiers. At the same time, Algeria is more adept at injections of renewable energy and more advanced in terms of marketing and distribution of renewable energy than its neighbor. Furthermore, both countries could also learn from their regional neighbor Tunisia in terms of developing appropriate regulations for market development. With these ideas and insights in mind, EWI, the AHKs in Algiers and Casablanca, and the participants developed the following policy recommendations. 

Recommendations 

Utilize hybrid energy systems to combine current energy infrastructure with the renewable energy sector. Algeria already has some experience with hybrid energy systems, which are fully convergent, making them useful for cross-border cooperation. Both countries need to develop reliable electricity supplies, which could be achieved via hybridization by combining biogas and solar power. 

Revitalize the DESERTEC project by developing new models to address drawbacks that jeopardized initial enthusiasm for the initiative. Originally envisioned to harness the Sahara’s vast solar energy to produce electricity to meet local and European needs, the project still offers a viable avenue for Algeria and Morocco to develop a large, multinational project, which cannot only meet their own energy needs, but diversify sources of income.  

Offer tax or customs exemptions to locally made goods originating from the region. This could address two of the main issues that have resurfaced throughout the project. It would enable Algerian or Moroccan goods to enter each other’s market, while enabling their local consumers to gain an understanding of the products available across the border. In turn, this would address the purveying lack of trust in Arab or Maghreb-made products in both countries’ respective markets. 

Unify market operators in the renewable energy sector so that they cooperate and act in unison in their efforts to influence and lobby local governments. Again, this policy requires a two-pronged strategy targeting local decision-making and cross-border cooperation, which can then be used in negotiations with third-party stakeholders, particularly Europe. 

Pool resources to target the European market. The EU’s objective to drastically reduce carbon emissions in the bloc, coupled with the reality that the continent needs to seek alternative energy sources, presents North Africa with an immense opportunity to combine its collective bargaining power in future energy negotiations with the EU. 

About the Algeria Morocco Business Dialogue

Despite its vast potential, the Maghreb region is often cited as being one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. The Algeria-Morocco Business Dialogue project has sought to bring together Algerian and Moroccan business leaders from multiple economic sectors with the aim of overcoming obstacles to bilateral trade between the two neighbors.

The dialogues have focused on several industries and topics vital to successful entrepreneurship in Algeria and Morocco such as food security, agriculture, healthcare, the impact of digitalization and new technologies and energy—with a particular focus on how to attract quality investment, ensure environmental protection and empower businesswomen.

COVID-19 unfortunately had a detrimental effect on the overall operation and schedule of the project. Each meeting was originally envisioned as an in-person conference such as the first event on the agricultural industry, which took place as a two-day delegation to Berlin to attend the city’s Green Week—one of the world’s largest international agriculture trade affairs. Travel restrictions and the ongoing pandemic inevitably forced the institute to adapt and change the format of the project from face-to-face meetings to several webinars. Although this meant the discussions between participants were less interactive than originally planned, they proved no less intensive nor productive as the following policy recommendations from our last and previous webinars attest. 

Click here to read a French translation of this event report.

Click here to read an Arabic translation of this event report.

Links to Reports of Previous Briefings:

The Startup Industry

The Healthcare Industry

Cooperation in the Automobile Industry

Women’s Empowerment and Entrepreneurship: Challenges and Opportunities

The Agricultural and Food Manufacturing Sector