On Friday, April 7, EWI Global Vice President Bruce McConnell spoke at the 8th Russia Internet Governance Forum, held in Kazan, Tatarstan. His remarks emphasized the need to bring the international cyber arms race under control, and the increasing ability to accurately attribute the source of cyber attacks. McConnell also proposed the creation of an independent, non-profit, international cyber attack attribution center. 

Click here to view the event webcast. 

McConnell's opening remarks begin at 0:52:50.

McConnell's second remarks begin at 3:52:00.

Munter said that America's European allies were concerned about the unpredictability of the Donald Trump administration and the impact that the questions about Russia's reported interference in the previous U.S. presidential election would have on American policy.

"The immediate cause is indeed the fact that the (FBI) investigations seem to indicate a certain attitute towards Russia, which is not the traditional thing that you find from Americans, Republicans and Democrats," said Munter in the April 2 interview.

Click here to listen to the full interview, beginning around the 9:20 mark.

Brussels, 6 April 2017 –The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the European Commission (EC) and the EastWest Institute (EWI) discussed today the development challenges and priorities in the Arab region, in particular the importance of youth empowerment as a new area of development cooperation in the region. Representatives of EU institutions, Arab Ambassadors to EU and members of the Brussels-based policy, development, and think tank community participated in the debate.

Anchored in the Arab Human Development Report (AHDR) 2016: Youth and the Prospects of Human Development in a Changing Reality, which UNDP published in November 2016, the debate examined links between the current priorities of the European Union, its individual institutions, and its member states, and the opportunities and challenges posed by the situation of youth in the Arab region.

Sixth in the series of AHDRs that UNDP has published since 2002, AHDR 2016 provides an evidenced-based overview on youth in the region. It underscores the demographic reality that the current youth cohort is largest the Arab region has ever witnessed. With two thirds of its 370 million inhabitants under the age of 30 and young people aged 15-29 years making up 30% of the Arab region’s total population of, this youth cohort is expected to dominate the development scene in the region for at least the next two decades.

“Our report argues that Arab countries can achieve a great leap forward in development, reinforce stability and secure such gains in a sustainable manner, if they adopt policies that give youth a significant stake in shaping their societies and put them at the center—politically, socially and economically,” stressed Mourad Wahba, Director of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Arab States. “Arab countries will need significant assistance to pursue such an ambitious development agenda. We are looking to our European partners to support this pursuit, which we believe aligns very well with current EU policy priorities and interests with regards to the Arab regions.”

The debate examined findings of the AHDR 2016 on the effects of conflicts raging across many of countries in the region, as well as barriers hindering youth’s enjoyment of essential basic services in education and health, and access to decent employment, on the overall prospects for the future of youth in the Arab region.

“This forum has offered interesting insights into how conflict and exclusion are the key drivers of youth mobility in the region, compelling young people to seek a safer and better life elsewhere,” said Marjeta Jager, Deputy Director General for International Cooperation and Development in the EC. “The new European Consensus on Development considers youth as a key driver for achieving SDGs. We also encourage our partners to further invest in education, and use it as a tool for promoting peace, tolerance and cultural diversity. With a total portfolio of EUR 5.4 billion, the EU is a key donor in supporting the achievement of SDG4.”

The debate also considered means to operationalize the report’s call on Arab states to invest in a new youth-oriented development model that simultaneously builds young people’s capabilities and expands opportunities available to them, while prioritizing the achievement of peace and security at national and regional levels.

“The development model that the report suggests for youth empowerment makes sense, but it requires structural changes that may prove difficult for many Arab countries to implement,” explained Kawa Hassan, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program in EWI. “European experiences in making public policies more youth-friendly and in formulating specific youth-oriented policies, may prove useful to Arab countries that are interested to heed the call of the AHDR 2016. Many European institutions will be happy to facilitate such critical experience exchange.”

For more information, please contact:

UNDP    

Ludmila Tiganu, Communications Specialist, UN/UNDP Brussels. E-mail: ludmila.tiganu@undp.org  Tel: +32 2 213 82 96

European Commission

Jörel Strömgren, Team leader, Communication and Transparency unit, Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development. E-mail: joerel.stroemgren@ec.europa.eu  Tel: +32-2-295 69 39

EastWest Institute

Lana Schmidt-Goertz, Program Assistant. E-mail: lsg@eastwest.ngo Tel: +32 2 743 46 22

About the Arab Human Development Reports (AHDRs)

The AHDRs engage institutions and citizens in Arab countries in analysis and discussion about factors which shape the choices and freedoms available to people across the region, so as to foster understanding and consensus around regional and national development priorities. They identify disadvantaged groups within the region, and suggest policies, strategies and opportunities for their empowerment. The Reports spur public debates and mobilize support for action and change through processes of consultation, research and report writing. They target policy-makers, opinion leaders and civil societies. AHDRs have helped to articulate perceptions and priorities in the region, and have served as a source of alternate policy opinion for development planning across varied themes.

About UNDP

UNDP partners with people at all levels of society to help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. On the ground in some 177 countries and territories, we offer a global perspective and local insight to help empower lives and build resilient nations.

About the European Commission

The European Commission is the executive institution of the European Union, responsible for proposing legislation, implementing decisions, upholding the EU treaties and managing the day-to-day business of the EU. The Commission's Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development (DG DEVCO) is responsible for designing European international cooperation and development policy and delivering aid throughout the world.

About the EastWest Institute

The EastWest Institute (EWI) is an independent NGO that works to reduce international conflict, addressing seemingly intractable problems that threaten world security and stability. EWI is recognized and trusted for its unique capacity to bring together key policymakers, experts, business leaders and ground-breaking innovators—forging new connections, driving dialogue and introducing sustainable solutions.

Some may wonder why Russia would risk the ridicule it received in the European and U.S. press by sending aging warships into the Mediterranean late last year. On December 5, 2016, Bloomberg even called the voyage of the Admiral Kuznetsov, the country’s only carrier, a “blunder.” But was it really? Among the factors for consideration, the Syrian conflict has provided an opportunity for Russia to deploy defensive systems to the Mediterranean, especially Tartus. Under the guise of aid to an ally at war and fighting ISIL, aircraft, cruise missiles and advisors could be moved in an operation that might otherwise have been countered as military expansionism by the Western powers. That window of opportunity had to be seized and the Northern Fleet carrier group was the only available means. A broader view of the mission raises interesting points about the actual status and future of the Russian surface fleets.

The traditional responsibility of the Russian Navy has been to provide a marine-based defense. It is not to serve as a Mahan style world ranging commerce protector. It has been, and continues to be, an extension of the land-based defense force. If we view Russia’s recent Mediterranean mission in light of Mahan’s blue water strategy, it can be deemed as a failure. It did not operate in open oceans, but more of as a coastal fleet. The flotilla had difficulties mechanically, it was refused refueling; and it lost aircraft. It did make it to the Syrian coast, but had minimal effect on the war, including having seen its air wing fly from land bases, and then the Kuznetsov was quickly recalled. Furthermore, photos of the Admiral Kuznetsov belching smoke like an old Dreadnaught did not portray the vision of a modern Navy at the peak of operational proficiency.

The Bloomberg assessment would be correct if the Kremlin were signaling a new Russian imperialism. However, that would indicate a quantum change in the mission of the naval arm of Russia’s military. Case in point, France’s termination of the Mistral projects was seen by Russian sources as the end of an idea out of place in the overall scheme of naval defense. The extension of military force through amphibious operations was seen as useful only for adventures in faraway regions. A shift to an overseas offensive fleet could also be seen as a miscalculation of the navy’s surface fleet’s current capabilities.

Russian Naval plans for the future still show a force dedicated to the defense of the Russian homeland. The problem is that this is a future fleet. The ships that will someday comprise the modern Russian Navy are still on the drawing boards. In the case of new carriers, new ship building facilities are, as of yet, not available to build vessels capable of long term, open ocean operations with a capable air wing. Even with the acquisition of port facilities in the Crimea, the Russians lack the docks, tools or expertise in modern building techniques and propulsion systems needed to build an American style blue water navy.

Russia is maintaining a legacy fleet which is quickly approaching the end of its operational life. The Admiral Kuznetsov itself has been slated for overhaul for some time. That said, the fleet can still be useful within the strictures of Russian Naval doctrine as Moscow seeks to position defensive weapon systems in forward positions to counter NATO, and particularly United States, naval assets.

As such, the sailing fulfills the primary mission of the Russian Navy as a line of defense. The Navy is designed to provide defense in depth by being the first line, at sea. Their current and future weapons have tremendous capabilities in their many variants, but limited range. The effective range of aircraft such as the carrier based SU-33 is 2993 km (1,860 miles) and the new SU-34 only 1094 km; primary missile systems such as the Moskit and Sizzler 240 km and Kalibr 1,500 km. All need to be forward deployed to be truly effective.

The inclusion of the Eastern Mediterranean in this strategy is nothing new. In Russian eyes, the Navy truly began with the riverine fleets of 9th century Kiev that protected trade routes through Constantinople. Russia became a sea power under Peter the Great (1672-1725). Aside from the Great Northern Wars with Sweden, the history focuses on the use of naval power in the 19th century to secure access to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea. There has always been a quest to secure bases in the Aegean or the Levant from which Russia’s only year round access to the maritime world can be protected. Reinforcing and expanding the base in Tartus, Syria fulfills that ambition.

In this respect, despite its shortcomings and age, the flotilla was successful. It did operate in the Mediterranean, demonstrating both at home and abroad that Russian weapon systems can be given the needed extension of range if the proper surface assets are available. The securing of naval and air force bases in Syria, together with the posting of bombers to Iran, extended Russia’s defensive ring to the Indian Ocean and Northern Africa.

The mission also provided training in the complexities of operating an air wing at sea and morale boost within the service itself. This “hands on” training is what gives the U.S. Navy an edge over most other Navies in the world.

As a public relations gambit targeting the Russian people and those holding the purse strings, the mission was a qualified success. It showed the capabilities of the Navy, in spite of its aging ships, and demonstrated the possibilities for a modernized fleet. The mission also helped erase the memories of the disasters of the subsurface fleet and the deterioration of the Black Seas Fleet following the independence of the Ukraine. Now, as the smoke from the Admiral Kuznetsov clears, it remains to be seen when funding for new surface ships becomes available.

Robert Cobb is a historian of American ideology, with an interest in the development of military strategy and planning. He has taught courses in American History, the History of Warfare, American Naval History, at a New England private school and as adjunct faculty of Syracuse University.

The views expressed in this post reflect those of the author and not that of the EastWest Institute.

Photo: "RFS Admiral Kuznetsov, Russian navy flag" (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by some guy called Darren

The roundtable was attended by representatives of think tanks, NGOs, NATO and EU institutions, diplomatic delegations to the EU, as well as Belgian police representatives.

Since establishing the “caliphate” in 2014, ISIS has unleashed an unprecedented social-media recruiting drive that has attracted more than 30,000 foreign fighters from over 100 countries. The terrorist group has mastered the art of video-based propaganda and online recruitment—attracting the curious and then “swarming” those who engage or endorse their online products. As ISIS continues to stretch its reach through recruitment beyond borders, discrediting the group’s ideology is essential and may be the most influential tool for preventing and dissuading others from joining ISIS.

To that end, over the past one and a half years Dr. Anne Speckhard and her colleagues at ICSVE have conducted more than 40 interviews with ISIS defectors from Syria, Western Europe, Central Asia and the Balkans, as well as 12 European parents of those who went to ISIS and shared personal horror stories of ISIS brutality and hypocrisy, most captured on video. ICSVE is taking the raw interview material and editing them down into short video clips that mimic ISIS propaganda, naming them with pro-ISIS titles and opening screens that look like ISIS, to load on the internet to fight the group’s online recruiting. The clips have been successfully focus-tested in Central Asia, the Balkans, Western Europe and the U.S., as well as in interventions on Facebook with ISIS endorsers and in ISIS Telegram chat rooms. 

Just like other brands, ISIS provides a lifestyle to its believers. In the words of Dr. Speckhard, “if you buy a Coca Cola, you buy a lifestyle.”  But ISIS is more than a brand. In a world where grand narratives have collapsed, ISIS presents itself and is seen by its true and die-hard believers as an alternative governance.

Is it possible to break the ISIS brand? This is a daunting task but not impossible. Local and international stakeholders that work on de-radicalization should, among other things, focus on the identity, social, political, and economic needs of vulnerable communities. Setting up helplines for vulnerable families can be very effective. In fact, this method has been applied with success in Germany. Western countries with vulnerable Muslim communities need to initiate overdue open, peaceful, and transparent debates on the thorny topic of identity. Furthermore, successful role models from migrant backgrounds can and should play transformative roles in providing an alternative lifestyle for the ISIS brand.

Hassan was part of the panel for “Dialogue & Trust: Real Lessons in Countering Violent Extremism” on March 1. EWI partnered with the Global Peace Foundation to organize the four-day convention, bringing together leading global experts and practitioners to share best practices and develop multi-sector partnerships for sustainable peace and development and the achievement of the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Organizers said the event drew 3,500 participants representing over 100 organizations from 42 countries.

Below is Kawa's remarks, beginning around the 6:00 mark.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Friends and Colleagues good morning, 

Thank you so much for the kind invitation to speak at the Global Peace Convention 2017. It is an honor to speak again at an event organized by Global Peace Foundation and its partners. I had the honor to speak at the last conference in Belfast in September. 

The questions we are asked to address at this session are immensely crucial and relevant. Yet I think they are more or less the same questions we discussed in Belfast. This doesn’t mean they are not important; on the contrary, they deal with one of the core issues of our time, which is at the same time at the heart of what my organization EastWest Institute is addressing, namely how to counter violent extremism and make our world a safer place. But in order for these questions to be dynamic and responsive in the face of rapid political changes in the West and the Middle East, I would like to connect countering violent extremism to two transformative phenomena that would impact peace building in the coming years, namely authoritarianism in the Middle East and populism in the West.    

How much a difference six months can make! Last time we met in Belfast. Back then Brexit was a fact but the U.S. (and with it the world) was engulfed in an existential election campaign that had the potential to change world politics with wide ranging implications for the fight against ISIS and other extremist groups. 

The election of Donald Trump and possible victories of populist and far-right parties in upcoming elections in France and the Netherlands may reshape the fight against violent Islamic groups such as ISIS. This will definitely impact the work of peace building organizations. While ISIS and other radical Islamist groups who are committing horrible crimes against Muslims and non-Muslims should be defeated, the key questions are: what is the best approach, and who are the best strategic and sustainable allies in this tectonic battle? 

Geopolitical shifts and populist surges in the West alongside fatigue with complex conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and beyond strongly suggest that a hard-core security approach and alliance with authoritarian regimes in Middle East perhaps will be the most dominant strategy in the coming years. This would result in the rehabilitation and resilience of repressive regimes such as Syria’s Assad and authoritarian and corrupt leaders in Iraq and other countries in the region. This strategy might yield military successes in the short term but in the long run will only strengthen apocalyptic groups like ISIS. To make matters worse, it will give autocrats a new lease on life. This means the Middle East could be condemned for the foreseeable future to a vicious cycle of violence committed by autocrats and apocalyptic ideologues. The civilian population and peaceful activists who want a dignified and democratic rule will be caught in between and will continue to remain the real victims as is the case at the moment. Going back to the topic of our session, namely root causes of violent extremism, what is the link between Jihadi Salafi terrorism and authoritarianism?          

In my view, one of the structural reasons for the rise of groups like ISIS is the systemic use of violence by the so called “secular” and religious regimes alike to quell dissent. The history of post-colonial states in Iraq, Syria, Libya and most other countries in the Middle East is a history of horrible human rights violations against civilian people, peaceful protests, and armed groups including public executions- even stoning and beheadings- and use of chemical and biological weapons. 

The barbarism of the henchmen of Abubakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, does not originate from a vacuum. They build on, are the logical conclusions of, and even refine the unimaginable brutality of the human rights violations of Saddam Hussein, Hafez & Bashar Al Assad, Gaddafi and other dictators. ISIS is an authoritarian byproduct, a consequence and not a cause of the current catastrophe in the Middle East. The overall extremely violent political culture and prisons were and are top universities for the graduation of the leaders as well as rank and file fighters of ISIS and other extremist groups. The only difference between ISIS and dictators is that ISIS meticulously documents and broadcasts its barbarism with a showcase of pride.

The most recent report of Amnesty International on Syria entitled “Human Slaughterhouse: Mass Hangings and Extermination at Saydnaya Prison, Syria” is a gruesome reminder of the terrible human rights violations committed by the regime and a warning of what may yet still happen. These regimes create the right environment for the birth of barbaric leaders like Abu Bakr Albaghdadi rather than Nelson Mandela. 
Political violence and human rights violations are related to economic corruption. By corruption I don’t mean petty corruption of low-mid level bureaucracy but rather systemic corruption at the highest echelons of power. Despite their many historic, political, economic and social differences Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Nigeria and some other countries, they share one common curse and that is the ubiquitous, exorbitant and unprecedented corruption of ruling elites that creates failed states and provides the perfect habitat for the emergence and advancement of violent extremism. Perhaps one of the books that pays sufficient attention to this global problem is the one aptly entitled “The Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global Security” by Sarah Chayes. To quote Ms. Chayes, “Since the late 1990s, corruption has reached such an extent that some governments resemble glorified criminal gangs, bent solely on their own enrichment. These kleptocrats drive indignant populations to extremes―ranging from revolution to militant puritanical religion.” 

The political order that emerged in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein dismally failed to produce an inclusive political pact in which all groups and citizens see the state as ‘their Iraq’. When Mosul fell to ISIS in June 2014, Iraq's national budget was over 141 billion USD. Ruling elites from Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish backgrounds have used these billions to enrich themselves and their cronies, strengthening party militias instead of building inclusive national institutions including professional armies.

The outrageous carelessness and scandalous double-standards of the international community towards the Syrian conflict has led to Syrian heartbreak, the worst refugee crisis since World War II and a protracted state of violence with no end in sight. Al-Assad's chemical weapons were destroyed by the UN, but his barrel bombs were left untouched only to wreak death and destruction in Syrian cities. Thus, it is no surprise that ISIS and other radical groups are mushrooming in such a conducive and ideal habitat. The Trump administration’s ban on Syrians and nationals from seven Muslim majority nations is the latest example of the rehabilitation of the Assad regime. U.S. immigration authorities barred entry to a 21-year-old Syrian cinematographer, even though he had a valid visa, who worked on a harrowing film about his nation's civil war, "The White Helmets”. This 40-minute documentary gives a window into the lives of the group's volunteers as they scramble to pull people from the rubble of buildings flattened in bombing raids. According to the founder of white helmets Khaled Saleh, the group saved 82,000 lives, including children and babies. I urge everyone to watch this documentary (which won an Academy Award in this year's ceremony). 

President Trump’s travel ban will only strengthen Assad, al Qaeda and ISIS. We live in an extremely dark time. Middle Eastern despotism, violent Jihadi Salafism and Western populism strengthen each other with disastrous consequences for the world. One way to counter this terrible trend is to link the struggle for dignity and democracy against Middle Eastern authoritarianism and terrorism to the new struggle against populism in the West. We need, though, to distinguish between the majority of voters who vote for populist and far right parties and those who are xenophobic. People are genuinely, rightly and truly terrified by the threat of terrorist attacks by ISIS in the West. It is this social base and fear that needs to be addressed in order to make the world a safer place and help peaceful protesters against autocrats in their long march for a dignified and democratic existence in Middle East. In these dark times this is a tall order. But we don’t have an alternative. More than ever we should commit to energized activism, new and transformative ideas, and above all hope. To quote Raymon Williams: “To be truly radical is to make hope possible rather than despair convincing.”

Thank you very much for your attention.

With no unified Syrian curriculum for Syrian children in or outside of the country in sight, Tara Kangarlou's interview with Imad Barq sheds light on potential alternatives that can be taken into consideration when attempting to manage the education crisis in Syria.

Barq, who believes “the only way to monitor the volatile education landscape” is to be in Syria, currently resides in Western Aleppo where he seeks to help the thousands of Syrian children who have been deprived of an education.

Click here to read the full interview on Al-Monitor.

McConnell noted that the very “definition of cyber is expanding” which in turn “presents new policy problems” for defining government’s role in protecting content.

The evolution of cyber “now involves information warfare and manipulation, beyond the historic view of cyber war as attacks at stealing from or destroying computer networks.”

McConnell concluded by noting that congress should “fix DHS, oversee DHS” and look more closely at the role insurance can play in improving cybersecurity across the private sector. 

Read the full article on the Washington Examiner here.