The EastWest Institute (EWI), in partnership with the Tehran-based Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS) and with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office, convened a dialogue in Tehran in December 2016 as part of EWI’s “Afghanistan Reconnected Process;” a multi-year program aimed at contributing to Afghanistan’s future stability by encouraging regional cooperation.

The Tehran dialogue extended to both policy makers and the business community to gain a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing Iran as an essential neighbor of Afghanistan. The dialogue aimed to deliver relevant policy recommendations that have a reasonable prospect of implementation. Specifically, discussions focused on identifying obstacles to trade, transit and energy cooperation between the two countries, and proposing viable solutions to these obstacles. The present briefing, jointly issued by EWI and IPIS, is intended to highlight the findings of the dialogue and the resulting recommendations. 

Executive Summary 

Iran’s re-entry into the global fold presents a number of unprecedented opportunities, positioning the country to contribute considerably to the development of neighboring Afghanistan in the coming years. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s strategy of fostering regional economic cooperation as the linchpin for long-term growth and stability in Afghanistan will encourage and even necessitate Iranian participation. As a vital neighbor emerging from global isolation, Iran can serve as a critical partner in this long-term plan, and also in the efforts of the international community.  

Tremendous opportunity exists to increase trade and economic cooperation between Iran and Afghanistan. Sharing a 936km border with trading routes through Herat in Afghanistan’s north, water sharing agreements on the Helmand River, and mutual opportunities for resource development, Iran is well-positioned as an integral member of Afghanistan’s regional development sphere. The India-supported construction of Iran’s Chabahar port represents an important step toward taking advantage of Iran’s access to deep water points. Opportunities also arise in addressing the massive trade imbalance between the two countries. At the end of the Iranian calendar year in March 2016, Afghanistan exported less than 26 million USD in non-oil trade to Iran, while importing only 2.5 billion USD from its neighbor in return. 
Iran stands ready to increase its role in Afghanistan, but there are clear obstacles to maximizing the potential of the Iranian/Afghan relationship: namely, poor connectivity and infrastructure, a deteriorating security situation, endemic corruption in Afghanistan, an absence of contacts and networks between Iranian and Afghan business people operating in either country, unfavorable visa policies and tariffs, and a lack of trust in the Afghan market.

Cooperation between Iran and Afghanistan to create a more secure environment is vital to long term economic growth in both countries. Iranian influence both in western Afghanistan and in a broader regional context can serve to improve security, assist Afghan governance improvements, and implement long term regional economic plans grounded in trusted agreements. A genuine partnership between Afghanistan and Iran, as well as strengthened regional and international efforts toward cooperation, will be crucial for future prosperity in the coming decades.

Download the full report here.

“I just don’t think that there’s a serious effort to engage the Russians,” says McConnell, who manages the institute's cyberspace program and a former deputy under secretary for cybersecurity in former President Barack Obama-era Department of Homeland Security. “It’s really a question [if] you want to work on the relationship and improve it, or whether you want to remain in a standoff, which we’re in right now.”

The article laments about how the discussions about Russia's reported cyber interference in the 2016 presidential election have not been accompanied with efforts to resolve the core problem: how to prevent it in the future? The article lists a few avenues to achive that objective.

Read the full article here.

In an interview with Australia's Radio National, Gady talks about what a second Korean War might look like. Listen here.

Read Gady's full analysis on The Diplomat here.

Japan’s cyberdefenses remain underdeveloped compared to the country’s great reliance on information and communications technology. Despite Japan’s initial slow response to the security challenges emerging from cyberspace, this paper posits that cybersecurity under the administration of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has moved to the core of the country’s national security policy. The 2020 Olympics Games are a major catalyst for this.

Over the last two years the Japanese government has indeed laid the structural and legal foundations for becoming a serious player in cyberspace. That effort, however, remains underfunded and is slowed by overly complicated intergovernmental coordination processes and stovepiping within the government.

While Japan remains a reluctant cyberpower with a decidedly defensive outlook and a particularly change-resistant bureaucracy, plagued by vertical compartmentalization, recent initiatives and policies have made it clear that the country is moving in the direction of potentially becoming one of Asia’s more advanced cyberpowers in the not-too-distant future.

This paper first outlines an analytical framework used to evaluate Japan’s current standing and progress as a cyberpower: from whole of government (WoG) to whole of nation (WoN) and whole of system (WoS). The following three sections discuss in detail the evolutionary stages in the development of Japan’s national cybersecurity strategy. The last section deals with the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ changing role in cyberspace and how it is slowly embracing a more militarized response to state-sponsored cyberthreats.

The administration of Prime Minister Abe has been careful not to abandon the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ defensive posture in cyberspace and has not indicated that it will develop offensive cyberwar capabilities. This, however, may change should the new U.S. administration abandon the United States’ historic solid defense commitment to Japan. In that respect, Japan’s deepening of engagement with like-minded countries will assume even greater importance over the next four years.

Read in full here.

Focused on domestic issues and personal attacks, the ongoing French presidential election campaign presents (at least) two striking characteristics. First, the debates largely neglect foreign policy and dodge the role/responsibility of France in the current transformation of the world order. Second, the debate does not even evoke the depth of such a global transformation, nor the best way to manage coming challenges for future generations. This is particularly true regarding the Asia-Pacific, a region where France recently has shaped an effective and rewarding policy, and which—based on its increasing influence—presents massive consequences for France’s future position.

France’s Stake in the Region

France has much to gain (or lose) as it needs the expanding capacity of the Asia-Pacific to retain its own status as a global power, as well as its economic competitiveness. First, the prosperity of France—the world’s fifth largest economic power and global exporter—is linked to Asian dynamism. Trade with the Asia–Pacific rose from 14 percent of France’s non-EU trade in 1985 to 32 percent in 2016 (16 percent of total trade); French direct investment now exceeds 80 billion USD. Second, France has a major stake in regional stability. With territories in the Indian and the Pacific oceans, France is an Indo-Pacific power with 1.6 million citizens and the second largest Exclusive Economic Zone (after the United States) to protect. France, with permanent operational naval and aerial deployment in these theatres, will be affected directly and possibly solicited as growing interconnections justify a security continuum. Furthermore, as a member of the United Nations Security Council and a nuclear power, France has certain inherent responsibilities.

The Hollande Administration’s Legacy in the Asia-Pacific

Under the Administration of François Hollande, France successfully has rooted its engagement to the Asia-Pacific as a legitimate and reliable regional actor.

Undoubtedly, the incoming president will inherit several promising partnerships including Japan (with which “2+2” meetings were established in 2015), Australia (where cooperation as like-minded partners in the Pacific has been reinforced) as well as India, China and Southeast Asia. This has come about by prioritizing consistent dialogue at both the administrative and institutional levels. For example, French defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has been a regular participant of the Shangri La Dialogue, the most important regular gathering of defense professionals in the Asia-Pacific since 2012. France is also a candidate for the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (comprising 10 ASEAN countries plus eight partners) and the East Asia Summit. The business communities are also pro-active, with the French business confederation MEDEF having organized numerous delegation visits to China, Japan, India and Southeast Asia over the last five years.

It is important to note that France has become a major defense industry exporter to the region. Roughly 30 percent of the submarines sold to Southeast Asian countries come from France; France sold 36 Rafale jet fighters to the Indian Air Force and similar negotiations are underway with the Malaysians and Indonesians. French helicopters, of all types, and transport aircrafts are also common purchases in Southeast Asia. Also, in December 2016, Australia signed a deal to acquire 12 French submarines that will extend security cooperation for the next 50 years between the two countries.

The Electoral Contest and its Consequences on French Positions

Given France’s stake in the region, its improved position and the positive perception France has in the Asia-Pacific, it is surprising that this is an issue virtually ignored by the candidates. Rather, if the Asia-Pacific has come up tangentially in the debates, it is often with a distorted perspective or an emotional approach demonizing China, seldom offering a nuanced, realistic and consistent analysis.

Yes, the election will have profound consequences for France’s Asia-Pacific policy. Moreover, the two candidates, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, reflect two contrasting views of Asia and that of France’s global status. France’s most critical political division is now between nationalist and internationalist sentiment, between cooperation and unilateralism.

Marine Le Pen, from the National Front (FN), still challenges the status quo in an effort to save “France’s civilization.” During her campaign, she denounced Asia (i.e. China) as a threat responsible for France’s deindustrialization and unemployment (even though National Front T-shirts and flags are produced in China and Bangladesh). Opposed to the European Union granting China the status of market economy, she is against free trade agreements with any country from the region because of “their devastating French local industries.” She also makes no mention of France’s security engagement in the area, as if there was no link between France’s global status and its military positions and partnerships.

Emmanuel Macron is campaigning for measured economic restructuring and a robust European Union. The support of Minister Le Drian is an assurance that, even if the candidate does not evoke France’s engagement in the region, the stakes are evaluated at their proper weight and with realist constraints. Also, Macron has called for a reinforcement of a French strategic presence within a European context. Having served as Economy minister, from 2014 to 2016, Macron has his own evaluation of the pros and cons of China’s economic rise, of India and, to a lesser extent, Southeast Asia. Probably, the candidate will follow the established course of using the EU as a multiplier and implement trade agreements signed with Vietnam, Singapore and South Korea. Much is expected from these trade deals after the death of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

France’s Asia-Pacific partners are following these final days of the campaign with heightened interest and doubt. They all have an interest in an open, inclusive and cooperative France. China needs a revitalized Europe. Japan is looking for political support to compensate for unpredictability in a tense environment. Australia is betting on further convergence in the South Pacific. For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the balance of power is the group’s basic international principle, and, as such, it will always favor a counterweight to a potential China-U.S. “G2” or, conversely, a rivalry between China and the United States. France is expected to weigh in on all of these grounds, and as an increasingly key stakeholder, will remain an important actor in the Asia-Pacific region in the years to come.  

Sophie Boisseau du Rocher is Senior Research Associate at the Center for Asian Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). 

The views expressed in this post reflect those of the author and not that of the EastWest Institute.

On April 28, David Firestein was a guest on “Pro and Con,” a popular live, Mandarin-language one-hour talk show on the Voice of America. Firestein offered commentary on President Donald Trump’s first 100 days and, also, on the Administration’s approach to China and Russia, as well as the triangular dynamics between the United States, China and Russia.

Firestein observed that though the Republican Party controls the White House and the United States Congress, and though the majority of Supreme Court Justices were also appointed by Republicans, passing major legislation, such as health care or immigration reform, remains challenging owing to deep intra-GOP rifts. Firestein also noted that his earlier prediction of broad continuity in U.S. policy toward China is seemingly thus far being borne out, while President Trump’s stated desire to improve relations with Russia has been thwarted, owing to the unexpected political fall-out from the Russian involvement in the U.S. 2016 presidential campaign alleged by U.S. agencies and other observers.  

Among non-native speakers of Chinese, Firestein is among the most frequently invited and widely recognized commentators on U.S. politics and foreign policy on the air today. The Voice of America Mandarin Service has over half a million YouTube subscribers.

On April 17, EWI President & CEO Cameron Munter spoke about on a wide range of global issues, particularly a new diplomacy in the 21st century and how diplomacy needs to adjust amid all of the new challenges. Watch:

Munter also discussed the topics in his appearance on the college's podcast "Free Food (for Thought)," including his thoughts on success. Before joining the Foreign Service, Ambassador Munter taught European history at the University of California Los Angeles. He also has been Professor of International Relations at Pomona College in Claremont, taught at Columbia University School of Law, was a Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and has two honorary doctoral degrees. Listen:

Refugee-hosting countries in Syria’s neighborhood—particularly Jordan and Turkey—have started adopting policies that aim at including refugees in the labor market. In reaction, international donors have begun to focus on helping host countries with these laudable, but at times politically delicate efforts. Indeed, the need to provide pathways to economic independence for Syrian refugees has become a priority and when governments, international donors and businesses work together, the prospect exists to turn some aspects of the Syrian refugee crisis into a development opportunity.

After a six-year-long focus on temporary measures, governments of refugee-hosting countries and international donors are seeking more (semi)-permanent solutions to the plight of the Syrian refugees. The reasons to do so include:

• The protracted nature of the Syrian crisis. Many Syrians are for now resigned to the fact that they need to rebuild their lives in their new communities, including more permanent solutions to make a living.
• The risk of societal tensions. With the passage of time and the situation becoming more permanent, there is a risk that societal tensions may grow between citizens and migrants competing for state services such as healthcare and education.
• The loss of state revenue. Syrian refugees often receive state benefits, though do not always contribute towards the state’s finances when businesses and employment remain "informal."
• (Future) decline in international aid. Given political developments in key donor states, including the rise of more nationalist politics, the international community is increasingly likely to demand “solutions in the region” in which Syrians will need to become more self-reliant.
• Necessity for Syrians to retain skills to return and rebuild Syria. Unemployment and underemployment can lead to a loss of human capital among the Syrian refugee population, thereby negatively influencing their capacity to contribute to Syria’s future economic development.

To enhance the prospects for displaced persons to find gainful employment, a lot of barriers need to be overcome. Some are political, others legal or regulatory and still others cultural. But the largest barrier to success remains the capacity of host economies on both the demand as well as the supply side. There simply are not enough jobs for both citizens and refugees alike, and those wanting to work often lack marketable skillsets.

The solution lies in the creative combination of creating jobs and matching skills. Here, policy makers can take of initiatives that will allow for upscaling solution-driven and innovative thinking that directly links the supply-side (marketable skills) and the demand-side (availability of jobs).

Many initiatives are currently proving that superior achievement occurs when local governments, the donor community, the private sector and development agencies work together. A good example is the work of NGO SPARK, which provides entrepreneurship training and scholarships for refugees. They owe much of their current success to the fact that the nature of the scholarships is linked strongly to the current (and future) needs of local labor markets.

Most policies in the realm of education and job creation are the responsibility of national or even local governments, but the international community also has significant potential to provide support.

Donors could create jobs within the hosting communities and could encourage international companies, working in those countries hosting large numbers of refugees, to create vacancies or internships for refugees, as per the example of the Dutch and Danish government as well as the efforts of UNHCR and the OECD with regard to private sector involvement.

Also, real potential exists in creating jobs “through the cloud” and in having international enterprise explore the means of providing remote employment opportunities for the displaced. Such solutions will need to combine insights related to the global skills gap, the digitalized economy, remote working opportunities, current education-for-employment initiatives and donor behavior.

While not a current reality, perhaps a refugee in Amman could do translations for a company in London, someone in Istanbul could do a data entry project for a company in Dubai, while someone in a refugee camp could code for a company in Silicon Valley. Several smaller NGOs have already begun to move in that direction.

Of course, a digitally empowered solution will not be suitable for all those displaced as many lack the skills to succeed in the digital age. However, it could help those tech-savvy, ambitious youth that are desperate to kick-start their professional lives. Even skeptics will point out that while the youth in question do not yet have such marketable skills, they tend to be well-versed in digital platforms such as Twitter and WhatsApp.

At the same time, international development agencies working on education and enhancing livelihoods for refugees could help by designing their programs in such a way that they encourage self-reliance and entrepreneurship and emphasize the need to link education to employers. Here, agencies can implement revolutionary education models such as "boot-camp learning"—a model that is proving very successful in graduating highly employable individuals in a very short period.

One of the best examples is the work of ReBootKAMP, in Jordan. During a four-month intensive program, refugees and local youth learn how to become software developers; immediately following, they are put in touch with international companies looking for this skill set.

Currently, the software developing world is most prominently exploring possibilities for remote employment opportunities. More opportunities, however, remain unexplored. Finding the mechanism could be a game-changer for refugees, for displaced persons and for many others in places that struggle creating “local” jobs.

This blog is based on a paper written by Saskia van Genugten and Lorraine Charles for the Emirates Diplomatic Academy. Saskia van Genugten, Senior Research Fellow in the MENA Peace and Security Program of the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi. She holds a Ph.D. from SAIS Johns Hopkins and previously worked as a manager for PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Government and Public Sector Advisory practice.

The views expressed in this post reflect those of the author and not that of the EastWest Institute.

Munter chatted at length with Pakistani journalist and human rights activists, Beena Sarwar, at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center about women's role in peace and security in Pakistan.

The former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan said there are Pakistani institutions "that keep women from reaching their full potential" including "a calcified political system, a juridical system that is underfunded and not efficient, and an education system that is woefully underfunded." 

Despite the misgivings, Munter quickly added that there are "long term trends in Pakistan which can favor some progress in this world."

Munter added that "the overarching passion about education in Pakistan extends to all classes, and extends to boys and girls. The professions in the country [lawyers, doctors, engineers] may overtime become feminized so the public sphere in Pakistan can change not suddenly, but incrementally by a gradual familiarization of people in a public role where women are accepted."

Listen below:

For details about the Belfer Center, visit here.

Image credit: BennCraig/BelferCenter