Although there has been no concrete evidence that votes were unlawlfully altered during the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, a leaked National Security Agency report appears to prove that Russian hackers attempted to compromise the electronic poll book software in numerous states. The scope of this hacking has not yet been determined, but, regardless of the possibly unprecedented interference, cybersecurity experts are already looking toward making future elections as free from outside influence as possible. They cite greater reliance on paper ballots and post-election audits as possible solutions to ensuring greater voter legitimacy down the line. 

Stressing the necessity of finding a proper solution as soon as possible, EWI Global Vice President Bruce McConnell told USA Today, “Maybe we dodged a bullet this time and there was no actual vote tampering. Next time we may not be so lucky.”

Click here to access the full article on USA Today. 

Kawa Hassan, Director of EWI's Middle East and North Africa Program, was on Kurd Connection to comment on the latest developments in the Europe-United States relationship. The segment, aired on June 30, focused on the speech by German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the fate of the European Union following the G7 talks in Italy.

Some highlights from Hassan's remarks are:

• Climate change is not only important for Europe, but also affects the entire globe and humanity. The European Union spent a lot of time and effort to lobby most countries to sign the Paris Climate Agreement. America's withdrawal from the agreement is a big blow to multilaterialism that aims at achieving and implementing joint actions to address the global impacts of climate change. 
• On May 28, Chancellor Merkel told an election rally in Munich that the EU cannot completely rely on the U.S. and UK. The tone and frankness of the speech is unprecedented since she is known to be cautious in her public statements and speeches. Partly, this has to do with the upcoming election in September in her country, and partly has to do with a broad European concern about the policies and unpredictable character of U.S. President Donald Trump. This tone symbolizes a shift in trans-Atlantic relations. Merkel made it clear that the EU should be less dependent on the U.S. and more dependent on itself. 
• To an extent, Trump has a point when he reiterated at a NATO meeting in Brussels that other member states have failed to meet the 2% spending commitment. The EU must be willing to increase its defense spending. Furthermore, at the same NATO meeting, Trump did not reiterate his commitment to Article 5 of NATO. These are fundamental changes in the trans-Atlantic alliance but they don't  necessarily herald the end of NATO and G7 because of three factors:
  • The U.S. is still the largest economic and military might in the world;
  • The EU still needs U.S. military protection against external threats; and
  • The U.S. remains a big market for EU products.

Watch the interview below courtesy of Kurd Connection, a joint program of Voice of America Kurdish Service and NRT, the Satellite Kurdish TV. Hassan's remarks begin around the 0:12 mark.

The reelection of Iran’s Hassan Rouhani as President emphasizes the support for stability and re-engagement with the international community—something that will be a relief for China.

Hassan Rouhani’s clear win in the Iranian election bodes well for the region, as well as for China’s interests. This reelection ensures a level of continuity that would have been difficult to retain under his opponent Ebrahim Raisi, who, in general, appeared to want a return to Ahmadinejad’s Iran. While China’s relationship with Iran would likely have remained similar under either leader—the stability brought by Rouhani is clearly preferred.  

The Campaign

The uncertainty of the campaign and global trends towards populism worked together to make the Iranian election nearly impossible to predict.  Generally, it was described as a ‘referendum on Rouhani’s job performance.’ With many Iranians dissatisfied with the growth of the economy since the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a Rouhani win was never a sure thing.  Shortly before the election, one of the other major conservative candidates dropped out and endorsed Raisi, making it seem like the conservative vote would all go for Raisi. If Raisi would have won, Iran would likely have to turn away from international investors and eventually moved away from the nuclear deal.

Raisi’s campaign underscored that he was a nationalist – focused on Iran solving its own problems, while Rouhani highlighted that he was a globalist—seeing the benefit of a more open economy. Part of Raisi’s campaign platform hinged on voters believing that the promised benefits of the JCPOA had not materialized and that the Iranian economy would benefit more from his guidance.  His campaign was filled with populist rhetoric claiming that he could improve the economy better than Rouhani.  Aspects of the campaign mirrored the election in 2005—when a populist Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani faced off—but Raisi’s message seems to have not had the expected impact.

Raisi’s campaign also made China into a scapegoat of sorts, as it has in the past, for a reason that Iran’s economy is not doing as well as it could—a doubling of the import of Chinese-made goods. This, however, works both ways—both imports from China and non-oil exports have increased since Rouhani started his term—66.5 percent and 73 percent respectively. Oil, still the major export, rose modestly by 4.3 percent. Compared to Ahmadinejad’s second term, in Rouhani’s first term non-oil exports have grown from 18.7 billion USD to 32.4 billion USD. Unemployment has also decreased from 15 percent when he took office to 10 percent last year.

Even though it was not clearly fleshed out, Raisi’s foreign policy left something to be desired. Overall, he told reporters that he would ‘establish ties with every country except Israel.’ Some reports, however, viewed his key policy advisor (and at that point potential foreign minister) to be Saeed Jalili, a frequent critic of the JCPOA who wants Iran’s foreign policy role to be more revolutionary—challenging perceived hegemony in the world.  Jalili was a nuclear negotiator under Ahmadinejad from 2007-2013.

As a result of the Ayatollah’s approval of the nuclear deal, it would be difficult for anyone to unilaterally move Iran away from it. Raisi ‘express[ed] respect for the nuclear deal,, but made it clear that it was not the solution to Iran’s economic problems—as it had been marketed. Essentially, Raisi’s foreign policy agenda would have been similar to Ahmadinejad’s.

Rouhani won—now what?

Realistically, Rouhani’s win means that we should expect to see a continuation of his current policies—and that’s a good thing for almost everyone involved. China, in particular, will view this positively as it will all but ensure that regional stability is maintained—at least by Iran. Stability is continually preferred by Beijing as it allows for more political predictability and maintains stable economic conditions. During his term, Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric became trying and stability was constantly threatened, so a similar administration would be disastrous—especially with the Trump administration. After Rouhani won his first term, he began a refreshing process of reengaging with the international community. Rouhani’s reelection with 57 percent of the vote will give him further support as he moves ahead with reforms and continues to further Iran’s ties with the rest of the world.  

Even as the Trump administration moves to ‘review’ the JCPOA, the vote of the Iranian people shows the world they have clearly chosen to support the process and gives China a strong reason to continue to support the JCPOA. This should be a clear sign that Iran wants to keep progressing under the agreement—any move away from full implementation would be squarely on the United States.  Reengagement with the U.S. will likely be difficult, but beneficial in the long run.

The main result for Sino-Iranian relations will be a continuation and possibly intensification of current relations. More infrastructure investments will likely be made—given Iran’s enthusiasm with the One Belt, One Road concept. In general, though, deals made before the election—such as China’s redesign of the Arak nuclear reactor as well as whatever OBOR projects already underway—will continue as scheduled. Overall, this election shows that continued stability and reform is important to Iran, something that China will be happy with.

Daniel Johanson is a PhD candidate at King’s College London focusing on Chinese foreign policy towards North Korea, Iran and Sudan.

The views expressed in this post reflect those of the author and not that of the EastWest Institute.

The Task Force on the Future of Iraq, convened by the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, has completed its year-long project to identify ways to support the Iraqis in stabilizing their state, facilitate the defeat of extremist groups like ISIS and building the basis for long term stability in the country.
 
Kawa Hassan, director of the EastWest Institute’s Middle East and North Africa program, was one of 20 experts invited to take part in the Task Force on the Future of Iraq. The Task Force was chaired by Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Executive Professor, Texas A&M University; Former Ambassador to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait, and Lebanon.
 
“It has been a tremendous honor to represent the EastWest Institute in this distinguished, policy-oriented group of recognized Iraq experts,” said Hassan. “It is with great pride that our recommendations on the paramount importance of good governance and real reforms—as preconditions to defeat ISIS and violent extremism—may add value to the security goals of Iraq and the wider region.”
 
Over the course of 2016, the task force brought together the world’s leading Iraq scholars, experts, and former policy practitioners to conduct a rigorous inquiry into how the United States could best protect its national security interests and promote Iraqi interests through targeted and effective engagement in Iraq. Task force experts traveled to Baghdad, Erbil, Sulaimani, Najaf, Amman, Berlin, and twice convened in Washington, D.C. to engage with Iraqi policymakers, civil society actors, and religious leaders. 

Download the full report here.

Photo credit: "Kalar Castle" (CC BY-NC 2.0) by Joshua Zakary

EWI Senior Fellow Franz-Stefan Gady spoke at the annual GLOBSEC Bratislava Global Security Forum, held on May 26-28.

Gady joined other panelists to discuss "Disruptive Technologies and Future Conflict: Investing in the Future of Defense." The panel asked some of the pressing questions today such as:

• How do we characterize the most urgent common threats that disruptive technologies must resolve? 
• What are the important emerging technology trends that could impact transatlantic defence?
• To what extent do we have viable approaches to evaluate where to make technology investments?
• How do we define the measures of success of these disruptive technology investments?

Watch the panel below.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe staked his line in the sand on his controversial plans to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution by 2020. The timing of Abe’s announcement, on Japan’s Constitution Day, was no coincidence, as this year marked the 70th anniversary of the country’s charter, which was enacted during the U.S. occupation of Japan after World War II. Abe’s push for constitutional change is divisive in Japan since it focuses on a clause in Article 9 that “renounces war” completely as a means to settle international disputes. 

Specifically, Abe wants to include a reference to Japan’s military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, within Article 9 and officially recognize their role through the constitution. The Self-Defense Forces have been de-facto accepted constitutionally for decades, but the Abe government argues that this should be spelled out more clearly and concretely through a revision to Article 9. 

Abe thus far has noted that he will not touch the current clauses in Article 9, likely in order to avoid greater controversy and backlash in Japan. In principle, the inclusion of additional language on the military is a reasonable and not far-reaching change. But the symbolism of any constitutional revision means much more given Japan’s postwar political culture, and that is likely to cost Abe political capital going forward.

The move has also stoked criticisms from many of Japan’s opposition parties, given Abe’s clever and even guileful approach of advocating for constitutional revisions as the president of his ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party. This loophole allowed Abe to avoid technically pushing the issue from his position of prime minister, since the constitution does not permit proposals for amendments from anywhere except the legislative branch. A second concern arose surrounding the venue where Abe chose to make the plea—at a gathering of the Nippon Kaigi group, a notorious right-wing group that has affiliations with Abe and many other members of his Cabinet. 

The tensions over constitutional revision may give some life to the fledging political opposition in Japan. But questions remain on the position of the main opposition party, the Democrat Party, as many of its members have also acknowledged the need for debate and potential changes to the constitution. There will likely be divided opposition on the issue in the coming months, to Abe’s advantage.
 

Click here to read the full article on World Politics Review.

On May 16, the EastWest Institute co-hosted an event to discuss Cyberspace Security and Global Security with the Russian International Affairs Council as part of its annual Board Meeting. The event welcomed EWI board members, Western and Russian experts on cyberspace security, representatives of both business communities and members of EWI's broader network to discuss the work of the Global Cooperation in Cyberspace program and prospects for Russian-American cooperation in cyberspace.

The day's activities opened with the unveiling of a joint EWI-RIAC policy report containing suggestions for furthering Russia-U.S. cooperation on some of the most critical issues in cyberspace today.

Following this, a panel of distinguished Russians, Britons and Americans including John Frank of Microsoft, David Omand formerly of GCHQ, Ilya Sachkov of Group-IB and Pavel Sharikov of the Russian Academy of Sciences met to give their perspectives on cooperation in cyberspace between these two major cyber powers. This panel built on the ongoing work of the EastWest Institute's series of bilateral Russia-U.S. Track II dialogues on cyberspace cooperation. 

The event also contained a review of the Global Cooperation in Cyberspace program's recent work, including its recently concluded Global Cyberspace Cooperation Summit VII in Berkeley. This panel featured presentations from key stakeholders in EWI's 5 breakthrough groups to discuss their progress and solicit feedback on topics such as balancing encryption and lawful access to data, increasing security and safety in IoT-connected cities, understanding and insuring systemic cyber risk, promoting norms of responsible behavior in cyberspace and increasing access to more secure ICT products and services.

The Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace (GCSC) will hold its first full Commission meeting to confirm the group’s action agenda and areas of focus. The meeting will take place on June 2-3, 2017 in Tallinn, Estonia on the sidelines of the 9th annual conference on Cyber Conflict.

The GCSC meeting will take the opportunity to engage with a range of academic and government experts on the critical initiatives in the field of international cyberspace stability, as well as confirm research and policy initiatives. The GCSC will also announce the launch of their Research Advisory Group that will help implement the Commission’s agenda, particularly on cyberspace security, Internet governance, international law as well as technical and information security.

“The first meeting of the full Commission marks a critical step in the GCSC’s approach and direction over the next three years,” said Marina Kaljurand, GCSC Chair, and former foreign minister of Estonia. “Cybersecurity depends on the cooperation of a range of stakeholders such as the government, private sector, civil society, academia and experts, across the right balance of geographies. On the strength of our Commissioners representing 18 countries, and with the added inclusion of experts from CyCon and elsewhere, we look forward to highly productive series of discussions that will shape our work going forward and help ensure advancement on how best to tackle security of cyberspace.”

Launched at the Munich Security Conference in February, the GCSC is the first organization of its kind dedicated solely to developing and advocating for norms and policies to improve cyberspace stability and security. The Hague-based organization is comprised of 27 commissioners and chaired by Marina Kaljurand (Estonia), and includes co-chairs Michael Chertoff (USA) and Latha Reddy (India).

For more information about the GCSC, please visit: www.cyberstability.org

For a complete list of GCSC commissioners, please visit here.